Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory
Climate model simulations of the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) warming have mainly focused on replicating the global thermal response through greenhouse forcing, i.e. CO2, at levels compatible with observations. Comparatively less effort has gone into assessing the skill of models to repli...
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Language: | English |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_24299 2024-04-14T08:16:00+00:00 Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory Rush, William D. (author) Kiehl, Jeffrey T. (author) Shields, Christine A. (author) Zachos, James C. (author) 2021-04 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 en eng Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology--Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology--00310182 Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory--10.7291/D1FQ18 articles:24299 ark:/85065/d7qz2fbx doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2021 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 2024-03-21T18:00:26Z Climate model simulations of the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) warming have mainly focused on replicating the global thermal response through greenhouse forcing, i.e. CO2, at levels compatible with observations. Comparatively less effort has gone into assessing the skill of models to replicate the response of the hydrologic cycle to the warming, particularly on regional scales. Here we have assembled proxy records of regional precipitation, focusing on the Mid-Atlantic Coasts of North America (New Jersey) and Europe (Spain) to test the response of the hydrologic system to greenhouse gas forcing of the magnitude estimated for the PETM (i.e., 2x). Given evidence that the PETM initiated during a maximum in eccentricity, this includes the response under neutral and extreme orbital configurations. Modeled results show excellent agreement with observations in Northern Spain, with a significant increase in both mean annual and extreme precipitation resulting from increased CO2 levels under a neutral orbit. The Mid Atlantic Coast simulations agree with observations showing increases in both overall and extreme precipitation as a result of CO2 increases. In particular, the development of sustained atmospheric rivers might be significantly contributing to the extremes of the eastern Atlantic, whereas extratropical cyclones are likely contributing to the extremes in the western Atlantic. With an eccentric orbit that maximizes insolation during boreal summer, there is a suppression of extreme precipitation events in the eastern Atlantic and an amplification in the western Atlantic, which may account for observations in the relative timing of the sedimentary response to the carbon isotope excursion associated with the PETM. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 568 110289 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Climate model simulations of the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) warming have mainly focused on replicating the global thermal response through greenhouse forcing, i.e. CO2, at levels compatible with observations. Comparatively less effort has gone into assessing the skill of models to replicate the response of the hydrologic cycle to the warming, particularly on regional scales. Here we have assembled proxy records of regional precipitation, focusing on the Mid-Atlantic Coasts of North America (New Jersey) and Europe (Spain) to test the response of the hydrologic system to greenhouse gas forcing of the magnitude estimated for the PETM (i.e., 2x). Given evidence that the PETM initiated during a maximum in eccentricity, this includes the response under neutral and extreme orbital configurations. Modeled results show excellent agreement with observations in Northern Spain, with a significant increase in both mean annual and extreme precipitation resulting from increased CO2 levels under a neutral orbit. The Mid Atlantic Coast simulations agree with observations showing increases in both overall and extreme precipitation as a result of CO2 increases. In particular, the development of sustained atmospheric rivers might be significantly contributing to the extremes of the eastern Atlantic, whereas extratropical cyclones are likely contributing to the extremes in the western Atlantic. With an eccentric orbit that maximizes insolation during boreal summer, there is a suppression of extreme precipitation events in the eastern Atlantic and an amplification in the western Atlantic, which may account for observations in the relative timing of the sedimentary response to the carbon isotope excursion associated with the PETM. |
author2 |
Rush, William D. (author) Kiehl, Jeffrey T. (author) Shields, Christine A. (author) Zachos, James C. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
spellingShingle |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
title_short |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
title_full |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
title_fullStr |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory |
title_sort |
increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the north atlantic during the petm: observations and theory |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology--Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology--00310182 Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory--10.7291/D1FQ18 articles:24299 ark:/85065/d7qz2fbx doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2021.110289 |
container_title |
Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology |
container_volume |
568 |
container_start_page |
110289 |
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1796314525092282368 |