Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1
There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The st...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_24095 2024-04-28T08:37:53+00:00 Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Pegion, Kathy (author) Sun, Lantao (author) Kim, Hyemi (author) Caron, Julie M. (author) Glanville, Anne (author) LaJoie, Emerson (author) Yeager, Stephen (author) Kim, Who M. (author) Tawfik, Ahmed (author) Collins, Dan (author) 2020-12 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 en eng Weather and Forecasting--0882-8156--1520-0434 articles:24095 ark:/85065/d7b27znp doi:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 2024-04-04T17:32:42Z There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The stratosphere as well as tropospheric modes of variability can also provide predictability at subseasonal time scales. However, the contributions of the above sources to S2S predictability are not well quantified. Here we evaluate the subseasonal prediction skill of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), in the default version of the model as well as a version with the improved representation of stratospheric variability to assess the role of an improved stratosphere on prediction skill. We demonstrate that the subseasonal skill of CESM1 for surface temperature and precipitation is comparable to that of operational models. We find that a better-resolved stratosphere improves stratospheric but not surface prediction skill for weeks 3-4. 1844590 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Weather and Forecasting 35 6 2589 2602 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
There is a growing demand for understanding sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Predictability at subseasonal time scales is believed to come from processes varying slower than the atmosphere such as soil moisture, snowpack, sea ice, and ocean heat content. The stratosphere as well as tropospheric modes of variability can also provide predictability at subseasonal time scales. However, the contributions of the above sources to S2S predictability are not well quantified. Here we evaluate the subseasonal prediction skill of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), in the default version of the model as well as a version with the improved representation of stratospheric variability to assess the role of an improved stratosphere on prediction skill. We demonstrate that the subseasonal skill of CESM1 for surface temperature and precipitation is comparable to that of operational models. We find that a better-resolved stratosphere improves stratospheric but not surface prediction skill for weeks 3-4. 1844590 1852977 |
author2 |
Richter, Jadwiga H. (author) Pegion, Kathy (author) Sun, Lantao (author) Kim, Hyemi (author) Caron, Julie M. (author) Glanville, Anne (author) LaJoie, Emerson (author) Yeager, Stephen (author) Kim, Who M. (author) Tawfik, Ahmed (author) Collins, Dan (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
spellingShingle |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
title_short |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
title_full |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
title_fullStr |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in CESM1 |
title_sort |
subseasonal prediction with and without a well-represented stratosphere in cesm1 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Weather and Forecasting--0882-8156--1520-0434 articles:24095 ark:/85065/d7b27znp doi:10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1 |
container_title |
Weather and Forecasting |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2589 |
op_container_end_page |
2602 |
_version_ |
1797569145261260800 |