Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information
The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a st...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031770 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23860 2024-04-28T08:09:26+00:00 Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information Stone, Kane A. (author) Solomon, Susan (author) Kinnison, Douglas E. (author) 2020-11-27 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031770 en eng Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.--2169-897X--2169-8996 articles:23860 ark:/85065/d7gm8bnc doi:10.1029/2019JD031770 Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031770 2024-04-04T17:33:50Z The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry-climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave-three-out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Bering Strait Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Alaska OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125 22 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The forecast potential of springtime ozone on April surface temperatures at particular locations in the Northern Hemisphere has been previously reported. Evidence suggests that early springtime Arctic stratospheric ozone acts as a proxy for extreme events in the winter polar vortex. Here, using a state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model, reanalysis and observations, we extend the forecast potential of ozone on surface temperatures to aspects of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere. Sea ice fraction and sea ice extent differences between years of March high and low Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes show excellent agreement between an ensemble of chemistry-climate model simulations and observations, with differences occurring not just in April but extending through to the following winter season in some locations. Large snow depth differences are also obtained in regional locations in Russia and along the southeast coast of Alaska. These differences remain elevated until early summer, when snow cover diminishes. Using a conditional empirical model in a leave-three-out cross validation method, March total column ozone is able to accurately predict the sign of the observed sea ice extent and snow depth anomalies over 70% of the time during an ozone extreme year, especially in the region of the Bering strait and the Greenland Sea, which could be useful for shipping routes and for testing climate models. |
author2 |
Stone, Kane A. (author) Solomon, Susan (author) Kinnison, Douglas E. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
spellingShingle |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
title_short |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
title_full |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
title_fullStr |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
title_full_unstemmed |
Prediction of Northern Hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
title_sort |
prediction of northern hemisphere regional sea ice extent and snow depth using stratospheric ozone information |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031770 |
genre |
Arctic Bering Strait Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Bering Strait Greenland Greenland Sea Sea ice Alaska |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.--2169-897X--2169-8996 articles:23860 ark:/85065/d7gm8bnc doi:10.1029/2019JD031770 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031770 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1797577807239315456 |