Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6
Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23404 2024-04-28T07:58:07+00:00 Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 Roach, Lettie A. (author) Dörr, Jakob (author) Holmes, Caroline R. (author) Massonnet, François (author) Blockley, Edward W. (author) Notz, Dirk (author) Rackow, Thomas (author) Raphael, Marilyn N. (author) O'Farrell, Siobhan P. (author) Bailey, David A. (author) Bitz, Cecilia M. (author) 2020-05-16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729 en eng Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--0094-8276--1944-8007 NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0--10.7289/V5FN144H NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3--10.7265/N59P2ZTG articles:23404 ark:/85065/d7xg9vc1 doi:10.1029/2019GL086729 Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729 2024-04-04T17:33:50Z Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979-2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Geophysical Research Letters 47 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Fully coupled climate models have long shown a wide range of Antarctic sea ice states and evolution over the satellite era. Here, we present a high-level evaluation of Antarctic sea ice in 40 models from the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Many models capture key characteristics of the mean seasonal cycle of sea ice area (SIA), but some simulate implausible historical mean states compared to satellite observations, leading to large intermodel spread. Summer SIA is consistently biased low across the ensemble. Compared to the previous model generation (CMIP5), the intermodel spread in winter and summer SIA has reduced, and the regional distribution of sea ice concentration has improved. Over 1979-2018, many models simulate strong negative trends in SIA concurrently with stronger-than-observed trends in global mean surface temperature (GMST). By the end of the 21st century, models project clear differences in sea ice between forcing scenarios. 1852977 |
author2 |
Roach, Lettie A. (author) Dörr, Jakob (author) Holmes, Caroline R. (author) Massonnet, François (author) Blockley, Edward W. (author) Notz, Dirk (author) Rackow, Thomas (author) Raphael, Marilyn N. (author) O'Farrell, Siobhan P. (author) Bailey, David A. (author) Bitz, Cecilia M. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic sea ice area in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
antarctic sea ice area in cmip6 |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--0094-8276--1944-8007 NOAA Global Surface Temperature Dataset, Version 4.0--10.7289/V5FN144H NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3--10.7265/N59P2ZTG articles:23404 ark:/85065/d7xg9vc1 doi:10.1029/2019GL086729 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2020 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086729 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1797567701921562624 |