Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems
Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decad...
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23394 2024-04-28T08:30:50+00:00 Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems Hermanson, Leon (author) Bilbao, Roberto (author) Dunstone, Nick (author) Ménégoz, Martin (author) Ortega, Pablo (author) Pohlmann, Holger (author) Robson, Jon I. (author) Smith, Doug M. (author) Strand, Gary (author) Timmreck, Claudia (author) Yeager, Steve (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) 2020-05-16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031739 en eng Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.--2169-897X--2169-8996 Data for recreating figures of scientific paper by Hermanson et al on volcanic impacts on climate--10.5281/zenodo.2613699 articles:23394 ark:/85065/d7mc9379 doi:10.1029/2019JD031739 Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031739 2024-04-04T17:32:42Z Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption. OCE1243015 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption. OCE1243015 1852977 |
author2 |
Hermanson, Leon (author) Bilbao, Roberto (author) Dunstone, Nick (author) Ménégoz, Martin (author) Ortega, Pablo (author) Pohlmann, Holger (author) Robson, Jon I. (author) Smith, Doug M. (author) Strand, Gary (author) Timmreck, Claudia (author) Yeager, Steve (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
spellingShingle |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
title_short |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
title_full |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
title_fullStr |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
title_sort |
robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031739 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres--J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.--2169-897X--2169-8996 Data for recreating figures of scientific paper by Hermanson et al on volcanic impacts on climate--10.5281/zenodo.2613699 articles:23394 ark:/85065/d7mc9379 doi:10.1029/2019JD031739 |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031739 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1797588558903508992 |