Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones
Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occ...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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Language: | English |
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2020
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922500117 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23358 2024-04-28T08:30:28+00:00 Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones Murakami, Hiroyuki (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Cooke, William F. (author) Zhao, Ming (author) Xiang, Baoqiang (author) Hsu, Pang-Chi (author) 2020-05-04 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922500117 en eng Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences--Proc Natl Acad Sci USA--0027-8424--1091-6490 articles:23358 ark:/85065/d70g3pc9 doi:10.1073/pnas.1922500117 Copyright 2020 The Authors. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922500117 2024-04-04T17:33:50Z Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 20 10706 10714 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Owing to the limited length of observed tropical cyclone data and the effects of multidecadal internal variability, it has been a challenge to detect trends in tropical cyclone activity on a global scale. However, there is a distinct spatial pattern of the trends in tropical cyclone frequency of occurrence on a global scale since 1980, with substantial decreases in the southern Indian Ocean and western North Pacific and increases in the North Atlantic and central Pacific. Here, using a suite of high-resolution dynamical model experiments, we show that the observed spatial pattern of trends is very unlikely to be explained entirely by underlying multidecadal internal variability; rather, external forcing such as greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions likely played an important role. This study demonstrates that a climatic change in terms of the global spatial distribution of tropical cyclones has already emerged in observations and may in part be attributable to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. |
author2 |
Murakami, Hiroyuki (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Cooke, William F. (author) Zhao, Ming (author) Xiang, Baoqiang (author) Hsu, Pang-Chi (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
spellingShingle |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
title_short |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
title_full |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
detected climatic change in global distribution of tropical cyclones |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922500117 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences--Proc Natl Acad Sci USA--0027-8424--1091-6490 articles:23358 ark:/85065/d70g3pc9 doi:10.1073/pnas.1922500117 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2020 The Authors. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1922500117 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
117 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
10706 |
op_container_end_page |
10714 |
_version_ |
1797588333455474688 |