Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized...
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23321 2024-04-28T08:34:30+00:00 Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System Brady, Riley X. (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Yeager, Stephen G. (author) Long, Matthew C. (author) Lindsay, Keith (author) 2020-05-01 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x en eng Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 articles:23321 ark:/85065/d7tf01jn doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x 2024-04-04T17:34:52Z The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. Threats to marine ecosystems are increasing due to ocean acidification, but trends are spatiotemporally difficult to monitor or predict. Here the authors use an Earth system model to accurately predict surface pH changes in the economically and ecologically important California Current System. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Ocean acidification OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. Threats to marine ecosystems are increasing due to ocean acidification, but trends are spatiotemporally difficult to monitor or predict. Here the authors use an Earth system model to accurately predict surface pH changes in the economically and ecologically important California Current System. 1852977 |
author2 |
Brady, Riley X. (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Yeager, Stephen G. (author) Long, Matthew C. (author) Lindsay, Keith (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
spellingShingle |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_short |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_fullStr |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_sort |
skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the california current system |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 articles:23321 ark:/85065/d7tf01jn doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1797591140487135232 |