Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt
Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951-2000 and 2051-2100. We find that internal variability dominate...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086913 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23273 2024-04-28T08:21:18+00:00 Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt Sherman, Peter (author) Tziperman, Eli (author) Deser, Clara (author) McElroy, Michael (author) 2020-03-28 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086913 en eng Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--0094-8276--1944-8007 articles:23273 ark:/85065/d71c2129 doi:10.1029/2019GL086913 Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086913 2024-04-04T17:34:52Z Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951-2000 and 2051-2100. We find that internal variability dominates the forced response on short timescales (similar to 20 years) and that the area impacted by internal variability grows in the future, connecting internal variability and climate change. Unlike prior studies, we do not assume specific patterns of internal variability to affect GrIS melting but derive them from maximum covariance analysis. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of internal atmospheric variability associated with GrIS melt conditions in CESM-LE and reanalysis, with the positive phase (NAO+) linked to widespread cooling over the ice sheet. CESM-LE and CMIP5 project an increase in the frequency of NAO+ events, suggesting a negative feedback to the GrIS under future climate change. 1852977 Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Geophysical Research Letters 47 6 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Understanding how internal atmospheric variability affects Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) summertime melting would improve understanding of future sea level rise. We analyze the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) over 1951-2000 and 2051-2100. We find that internal variability dominates the forced response on short timescales (similar to 20 years) and that the area impacted by internal variability grows in the future, connecting internal variability and climate change. Unlike prior studies, we do not assume specific patterns of internal variability to affect GrIS melting but derive them from maximum covariance analysis. We find that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of internal atmospheric variability associated with GrIS melt conditions in CESM-LE and reanalysis, with the positive phase (NAO+) linked to widespread cooling over the ice sheet. CESM-LE and CMIP5 project an increase in the frequency of NAO+ events, suggesting a negative feedback to the GrIS under future climate change. 1852977 |
author2 |
Sherman, Peter (author) Tziperman, Eli (author) Deser, Clara (author) McElroy, Michael (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
spellingShingle |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
title_short |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
title_full |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
title_fullStr |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
title_full_unstemmed |
Historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime Greenland ice sheet melt |
title_sort |
historical and future roles of internal atmospheric variability in modulating summertime greenland ice sheet melt |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086913 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--0094-8276--1944-8007 articles:23273 ark:/85065/d71c2129 doi:10.1029/2019GL086913 |
op_rights |
Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086913 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1797583718569738240 |