Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsi...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_23179 2024-04-28T08:35:29+00:00 Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw Turetsky, Merritt R. (author) Abbott, Benjamin W. (author) Jones, Miriam C. (author) Anthony, Katey Walter (author) Olefeldt, David (author) Schuur, Edward A. G. (author) Grosse, Guido (author) Kuhry, Peter (author) Hugelius, Gustaf (author) Koven, Charles (author) Lawrence, David M. (author) Gibson, Carolyn (author) Sannel, A. Britta K. (author) McGuire, A. David (author) 2020-02-03 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 en eng Nature Geoscience--Nat. Geosci.--1752-0894--1752-0908 articles:23179 ark:/85065/d72z18qh doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 Copyright 2020 Springer Nature Limited. article Text 2020 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 2024-04-04T17:34:52Z The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Nature Geoscience 13 2 138 143 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost. |
author2 |
Turetsky, Merritt R. (author) Abbott, Benjamin W. (author) Jones, Miriam C. (author) Anthony, Katey Walter (author) Olefeldt, David (author) Schuur, Edward A. G. (author) Grosse, Guido (author) Kuhry, Peter (author) Hugelius, Gustaf (author) Koven, Charles (author) Lawrence, David M. (author) Gibson, Carolyn (author) Sannel, A. Britta K. (author) McGuire, A. David (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
spellingShingle |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
title_short |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
title_full |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
title_fullStr |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
title_full_unstemmed |
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
title_sort |
carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Nature Geoscience--Nat. Geosci.--1752-0894--1752-0908 articles:23179 ark:/85065/d72z18qh doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2020 Springer Nature Limited. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0526-0 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
138 |
op_container_end_page |
143 |
_version_ |
1797567573483585536 |