The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea
Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill h...
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22851 2023-09-05T13:17:24+02:00 The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea Bushuk, Mitchell (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Winton, Michael (author) Msadek, Rym (author) Harrison, Matthew (author) Rosati, Anthony (author) Gudgel, Rich (author) 2019-10-01 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 en eng Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:22851 ark:/85065/d789190t doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. article Text 2019 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 2023-08-14T18:50:41Z Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill has not yet been systematically investigated. In this work, we perform a hierarchy of observing system experiments with a coupled global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the value of different classes of oceanic and atmospheric observations for seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. We find notable skill improvements due to the inclusion of both sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations and subsurface conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) measurements. The SST data are found to provide the crucial source of interannual variability, whereas the CTD data primarily provide climatological and trend improvements. Analysis of the Barents Sea ocean heat budget suggests that ocean heat content anomalies in this region are driven by surface heat fluxes on seasonal time scales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Barents Sea Journal of Climate 32 20 7017 7035 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Dynamical prediction systems have shown potential to meet the emerging need for seasonal forecasts of regional Arctic sea ice. Observationally constrained initial conditions are a key source of skill for these predictions, but the direct influence of different observation types on prediction skill has not yet been systematically investigated. In this work, we perform a hierarchy of observing system experiments with a coupled global data assimilation and prediction system to assess the value of different classes of oceanic and atmospheric observations for seasonal sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea. We find notable skill improvements due to the inclusion of both sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations and subsurface conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) measurements. The SST data are found to provide the crucial source of interannual variability, whereas the CTD data primarily provide climatological and trend improvements. Analysis of the Barents Sea ocean heat budget suggests that ocean heat content anomalies in this region are driven by surface heat fluxes on seasonal time scales. |
author2 |
Bushuk, Mitchell (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Winton, Michael (author) Msadek, Rym (author) Harrison, Matthew (author) Rosati, Anthony (author) Gudgel, Rich (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
spellingShingle |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
title_short |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
title_full |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
The value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
value of sustained ocean observations for sea ice predictions in the barents sea |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:22851 ark:/85065/d789190t doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0179.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
7017 |
op_container_end_page |
7035 |
_version_ |
1776198585244712960 |