Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean
Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century(1-4). This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems(5-7), particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, such...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22433 2023-09-05T13:23:25+02:00 Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean Negrete-García, Gabriela (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Hauri, Claudine (author) Krumhardt, Kristen M. (author) Lauvset, Siv K. (author) 2019-04-11 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 en eng Nature Climate Change--Nat. Clim. Chang.--1758-678X--1758-6798 articles:22433 ark:/85065/d7fn197z doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 Copyright 2019 Author(s). Published under license by the Nature Publishing Group. article Text 2019 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 2023-08-14T18:48:49Z Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century(1-4). This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems(5-7), particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, such as pteropods(7), which can dominate polar surface water communities(6). Here, we quantify the depth of the present-day Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon using hydrographic and ocean carbon chemistry observations, and use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM)(8,9) to track its evolution. A new, shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges in many Southern Ocean locations between now and the end of the century. While all ensemble members capture the emergence, internal climate variability may affect the year of emergence; thus, its detection may have been overlooked by ensemble average analysis in the past. The emergence of the new horizon is driven by the slow accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation. The new horizon is also apparent under an emission-stabilizing scenario indicating an inevitable, sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms. 1641177 Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Southern Ocean Nature Climate Change 9 4 313 317 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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language |
English |
description |
Models project that with current CO2 emission rates, the Southern Ocean surface will be undersaturated with respect to aragonite by the end of this century(1-4). This will result in widespread impacts on biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems(5-7), particularly the health of aragonitic organisms, such as pteropods(7), which can dominate polar surface water communities(6). Here, we quantify the depth of the present-day Southern Ocean aragonite saturation horizon using hydrographic and ocean carbon chemistry observations, and use a large ensemble of simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM)(8,9) to track its evolution. A new, shallow aragonite saturation horizon emerges in many Southern Ocean locations between now and the end of the century. While all ensemble members capture the emergence, internal climate variability may affect the year of emergence; thus, its detection may have been overlooked by ensemble average analysis in the past. The emergence of the new horizon is driven by the slow accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean thermocline, where the carbonate ion concentration exhibits a local minimum and approaches undersaturation. The new horizon is also apparent under an emission-stabilizing scenario indicating an inevitable, sudden decrease in the volume of suitable habitat for aragonitic organisms. 1641177 |
author2 |
Negrete-García, Gabriela (author) Lovenduski, Nicole S. (author) Hauri, Claudine (author) Krumhardt, Kristen M. (author) Lauvset, Siv K. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
spellingShingle |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_short |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_full |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the Southern Ocean |
title_sort |
sudden emergence of a shallow aragonite saturation horizon in the southern ocean |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Nature Climate Change--Nat. Clim. Chang.--1758-678X--1758-6798 articles:22433 ark:/85065/d7fn197z doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 Author(s). Published under license by the Nature Publishing Group. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0418-8 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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9 |
container_issue |
4 |
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313 |
op_container_end_page |
317 |
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1776204000125779968 |