Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation
The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22295 2023-09-05T13:21:18+02:00 Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation Chiodo, Gabriel (author) Oehrlein, Jessica (author) Polvani, Lorenzo M. (author) Fyfe, John C. (author) Smith, Anne Kidder (author) 2019-02-21 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 en eng Nature Geoscience--Nature Geosci--1752-0894--1752-0908 articles:22295 ark:/85065/d7z03c5r doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 Copyright 2019 Springer Nature. article Text 2019 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 2023-08-14T18:50:11Z The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry-climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Nature Geoscience 12 2 94 99 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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language |
English |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode of variability of atmospheric circulation outside of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere in winter. To understand and attribute this mode of variability is of great societal relevance for populated regions in Eurasia. It has been widely claimed that there is a robust signal of the nearly periodic 11-year solar cycle in the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter, which thereby raises the possibility of using the solar cycle to predict the circulation years in advance. Here we present evidence that contradicts this claim. First, we show the absence of a solar signal in the North Atlantic Oscillation in the instrumental record prior to the mid-1960s, and a marginally significant signal thereafter. Second, from our analysis of a global chemistry-climate model repeatedly forced with the sequence of solar irradiance since the mid-1960s, we suggest that the solar signal over this period might have been a chance occurrence due to internal variability, and hence does not imply enhanced predictability. |
author2 |
Chiodo, Gabriel (author) Oehrlein, Jessica (author) Polvani, Lorenzo M. (author) Fyfe, John C. (author) Smith, Anne Kidder (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
spellingShingle |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_short |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_fullStr |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation |
title_sort |
insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the north atlantic oscillation |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Nature Geoscience--Nature Geosci--1752-0894--1752-0908 articles:22295 ark:/85065/d7z03c5r doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 Springer Nature. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0293-3 |
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Nature Geoscience |
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12 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
94 |
op_container_end_page |
99 |
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1776201911940153344 |