Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability
Observed September Arctic sea ice has declined sharply over the satellite era. While most climate models forced by observed external forcing simulate a decline, few show trends matching the observations, suggesting either model deficiencies or significant contributions from internal variability. Usi...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22293 2023-09-05T13:16:12+02:00 Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability Castruccio, Frederic S. (author) Ruprich-Robert, Yohan (author) Yeager, Stephen G. (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) Msadek, Rym (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) 2019-03-01 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 en eng Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3--10.7265/N59P2ZTG articles:22293 ark:/85065/d73r0ww2 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. article Text 2019 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 2023-08-14T18:50:11Z Observed September Arctic sea ice has declined sharply over the satellite era. While most climate models forced by observed external forcing simulate a decline, few show trends matching the observations, suggesting either model deficiencies or significant contributions from internal variability. Using a set of perturbed climate model experiments, we provide evidence that atmospheric teleconnections associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can drive low-frequency Arctic sea ice fluctuations. Even without AMV-related changes in ocean heat transport, AMV-like surface temperature anomalies lead to adjustments in atmospheric circulation patterns that produce similar Arctic sea ice changes in three different climate models. Positive AMV anomalies induce a decrease in the frequency of winter polar anticyclones, which is reflected both in the sea level pressure as a weakening of the Beaufort Sea high and in the surface temperature as warm anomalies in response to increased low-cloud cover. Positive AMV anomalies are also shown to favor an increased prevalence of an Arctic dipole-like sea level pressure pattern in late winter/early spring. The resulting anomalous winds drive anomalous ice motions (dynamic effect). Combined with the reduced winter sea ice formation (thermodynamic effect), the Arctic sea ice becomes thinner, younger, and more prone to melt in summer. Following a phase shift to positive AMV, the resulting atmospheric teleconnections can lead to a decadal ice thinning trend in the Arctic Ocean on the order of 8%-16% of the reconstructed long-term trend, and a decadal trend (decline) in September Arctic sea ice area of up to 21% of the observed long-term trend. NA13OAR4310138 OCE1243015 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Arctic Ocean Journal of Climate 32 5 1419 1441 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Observed September Arctic sea ice has declined sharply over the satellite era. While most climate models forced by observed external forcing simulate a decline, few show trends matching the observations, suggesting either model deficiencies or significant contributions from internal variability. Using a set of perturbed climate model experiments, we provide evidence that atmospheric teleconnections associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can drive low-frequency Arctic sea ice fluctuations. Even without AMV-related changes in ocean heat transport, AMV-like surface temperature anomalies lead to adjustments in atmospheric circulation patterns that produce similar Arctic sea ice changes in three different climate models. Positive AMV anomalies induce a decrease in the frequency of winter polar anticyclones, which is reflected both in the sea level pressure as a weakening of the Beaufort Sea high and in the surface temperature as warm anomalies in response to increased low-cloud cover. Positive AMV anomalies are also shown to favor an increased prevalence of an Arctic dipole-like sea level pressure pattern in late winter/early spring. The resulting anomalous winds drive anomalous ice motions (dynamic effect). Combined with the reduced winter sea ice formation (thermodynamic effect), the Arctic sea ice becomes thinner, younger, and more prone to melt in summer. Following a phase shift to positive AMV, the resulting atmospheric teleconnections can lead to a decadal ice thinning trend in the Arctic Ocean on the order of 8%-16% of the reconstructed long-term trend, and a decadal trend (decline) in September Arctic sea ice area of up to 21% of the observed long-term trend. NA13OAR4310138 OCE1243015 |
author2 |
Castruccio, Frederic S. (author) Ruprich-Robert, Yohan (author) Yeager, Stephen G. (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) Msadek, Rym (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
spellingShingle |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_short |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_full |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_fullStr |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic multidecadal variability |
title_sort |
modulation of arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from atlantic multidecadal variability |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 3--10.7265/N59P2ZTG articles:22293 ark:/85065/d73r0ww2 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1419 |
op_container_end_page |
1441 |
_version_ |
1776197870453522432 |