Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends
Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temp...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22231 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_22231 2023-09-05T13:23:03+02:00 Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Cooke, William (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) 2019-01-03 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 en eng Nature Climate Change--Nature Clim Change--1758-678X--1758-6798 articles:22231 ark:/85065/d71v5hzq doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 Copyright 2019 Nature Publishing Group article Text 2019 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 2023-08-14T18:49:12Z Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends. These observed trends are consistent with a particular phase of natural variability of the Southern Ocean as derived from climate model simulations. Ensembles of simulations are conducted starting from differing phases of this variability. The observed spatial pattern of trends is reproduced in simulations that start from an active phase of Southern Ocean convection. Simulations starting from a neutral phase do not reproduce the observed changes, similarly to the multimodel mean results of CMIP5 models. The long timescales associated with this natural variability show potential for skilful decadal prediction. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Southern Ocean OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Southern Ocean Nature Climate Change 9 1 59 65 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Observed Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea-ice expansion over the past several decades are inconsistent with many historical simulations from climate models. Here we show that natural multidecadal variability involving Southern Ocean convection may have contributed strongly to the observed temperature and sea-ice trends. These observed trends are consistent with a particular phase of natural variability of the Southern Ocean as derived from climate model simulations. Ensembles of simulations are conducted starting from differing phases of this variability. The observed spatial pattern of trends is reproduced in simulations that start from an active phase of Southern Ocean convection. Simulations starting from a neutral phase do not reproduce the observed changes, similarly to the multimodel mean results of CMIP5 models. The long timescales associated with this natural variability show potential for skilful decadal prediction. |
author2 |
Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Cooke, William (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
spellingShingle |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
title_short |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
title_full |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
title_fullStr |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Natural variability of Southern Ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
title_sort |
natural variability of southern ocean convection as a driver of observed climate trends |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
geographic |
Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Southern Ocean |
genre |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_relation |
Nature Climate Change--Nature Clim Change--1758-678X--1758-6798 articles:22231 ark:/85065/d71v5hzq doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 Nature Publishing Group |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0350-3 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
59 |
op_container_end_page |
65 |
_version_ |
1776203624966258688 |