Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes
Practical predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic is evaluated in different synoptic flow regimes using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecasts with forecast lead time up to two weeks. Synoptic flow regimes are represented by tropical cyclogenesis pathways...
Published in: | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences |
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Language: | English |
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2018
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21489 2023-09-05T13:21:25+02:00 Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes Wang, Zhuo (author) Li, Weiwei (author) Peng, Melinda S. (author) Jiang, Xianan (author) McTaggart-Cowan, Ron (author) Davis, Christopher A. (author) 2018-01 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 en eng Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences--J. Atmos. Sci.--0022-4928--1520-0469 articles:21489 ark:/85065/d7k64msr doi:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 Copyright 2018 American Meteorological Society (AMS). article Text 2018 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 2023-08-14T18:48:08Z Practical predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic is evaluated in different synoptic flow regimes using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecasts with forecast lead time up to two weeks. Synoptic flow regimes are represented by tropical cyclogenesis pathways defined in a previous study based on the low-level baroclinicity and upper-level forcing of the genesis environmental state, including nonbaroclinic, low-level baroclinic, trough-induced, weak tropical transition (TT), and strong TT pathways. It is found that the strong TT and weak TT pathways have lower predictability than the other pathways, linked to the lower predictability of vertical wind shear and midlevel humidity in the genesis vicinity of a developing TT storm. Further analysis suggests that stronger extratropical influences contribute to lower genesis predictability. It is also shown that the regional and seasonal variations of the genesis predictive skill in the GEFS can be largely explained by the relative frequency of occurrence of each pathway and the predictability differences among pathways. Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is further discussed using the concept of the genesis potential index. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 75 1 361 378 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Practical predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic is evaluated in different synoptic flow regimes using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecasts with forecast lead time up to two weeks. Synoptic flow regimes are represented by tropical cyclogenesis pathways defined in a previous study based on the low-level baroclinicity and upper-level forcing of the genesis environmental state, including nonbaroclinic, low-level baroclinic, trough-induced, weak tropical transition (TT), and strong TT pathways. It is found that the strong TT and weak TT pathways have lower predictability than the other pathways, linked to the lower predictability of vertical wind shear and midlevel humidity in the genesis vicinity of a developing TT storm. Further analysis suggests that stronger extratropical influences contribute to lower genesis predictability. It is also shown that the regional and seasonal variations of the genesis predictive skill in the GEFS can be largely explained by the relative frequency of occurrence of each pathway and the predictability differences among pathways. Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is further discussed using the concept of the genesis potential index. |
author2 |
Wang, Zhuo (author) Li, Weiwei (author) Peng, Melinda S. (author) Jiang, Xianan (author) McTaggart-Cowan, Ron (author) Davis, Christopher A. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
spellingShingle |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
title_short |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
title_full |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
title_fullStr |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
title_sort |
predictive skill and predictability of north atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences--J. Atmos. Sci.--0022-4928--1520-0469 articles:21489 ark:/85065/d7k64msr doi:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2018 American Meteorological Society (AMS). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 |
container_title |
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences |
container_volume |
75 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
361 |
op_container_end_page |
378 |
_version_ |
1776202028066799616 |