The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences
The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 A degrees C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 A degrees C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21478 2023-09-05T13:13:37+02:00 The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences Wigley, Tom M. L. (author) 2018-03-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 en eng Climatic Change--Climatic Change--0165-0009--1573-1480 Wigley-ParisPaperData.xls--10.4225/55/5a164b9179a9a articles:21478 ark:/85065/d7ft8ppq doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 Copyright 2108 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. article Text 2018 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 2023-08-14T18:48:12Z The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 A degrees C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 A degrees C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2 A degrees C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5 A degrees C target, CO2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4 A degrees C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5 A degrees C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 A degrees C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 A degrees C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 A degrees C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet Climatic Change 147 1-2 31 45 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 A degrees C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 A degrees C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2 A degrees C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5 A degrees C target, CO2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4 A degrees C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5 A degrees C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 A degrees C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 A degrees C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 A degrees C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries. |
author2 |
Wigley, Tom M. L. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
spellingShingle |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
title_short |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
title_full |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
title_fullStr |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
title_sort |
paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelves |
op_relation |
Climatic Change--Climatic Change--0165-0009--1573-1480 Wigley-ParisPaperData.xls--10.4225/55/5a164b9179a9a articles:21478 ark:/85065/d7ft8ppq doi:10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2108 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
1-2 |
container_start_page |
31 |
op_container_end_page |
45 |
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1776204823071293440 |