Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales
Near-surface Arctic warming has been shown to impact the midlatitude jet streams through the use of carefully designed model simulations with and without Arctic sea ice loss. In this work, a Granger causality regression approach is taken to quantify the response of the zonal wind to variability of n...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21308 2023-09-05T13:16:08+02:00 Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales Barnes, Elizabeth A. (author) Simpson, Isla R. (author) 2017-12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 en eng Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:21308 ark:/85065/d76q20wn doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 2023-08-14T18:48:29Z Near-surface Arctic warming has been shown to impact the midlatitude jet streams through the use of carefully designed model simulations with and without Arctic sea ice loss. In this work, a Granger causality regression approach is taken to quantify the response of the zonal wind to variability of near-surface Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales across the CMIP5 models. Using this technique, a robust influence of regional Arctic warming on the North Atlantic and North Pacific jet stream positions, speeds, and zonal winds is demonstrated. However, Arctic temperatures only explain an additional 3%-5% of the variance of the winds after accounting for the variance associated with the persistence of the wind anomalies from previous weeks. In terms of the jet stream response, the North Pacific and North Atlantic jet streams consistently shift equatorward in response to Arctic warming but also strengthen, rather than weaken, during most months of the year. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the jet stream position and strength to Arctic warming is shown to be a strong function of season. Specifically, in both ocean basins, the jets shift farthest equatorward in the summer months. It is argued that this seasonal sensitivity is due to the Arctic-warming-induced wind anomalies remaining relatively fixed in latitude, while the climatological jet migrates in and out of the anomalies throughout the annual cycle. Based on these results, model differences in the climatological jet stream position are shown to lead to differences in the jet stream position's sensitivity to Arctic warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Pacific Journal of Climate 30 24 10117 10137 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Near-surface Arctic warming has been shown to impact the midlatitude jet streams through the use of carefully designed model simulations with and without Arctic sea ice loss. In this work, a Granger causality regression approach is taken to quantify the response of the zonal wind to variability of near-surface Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales across the CMIP5 models. Using this technique, a robust influence of regional Arctic warming on the North Atlantic and North Pacific jet stream positions, speeds, and zonal winds is demonstrated. However, Arctic temperatures only explain an additional 3%-5% of the variance of the winds after accounting for the variance associated with the persistence of the wind anomalies from previous weeks. In terms of the jet stream response, the North Pacific and North Atlantic jet streams consistently shift equatorward in response to Arctic warming but also strengthen, rather than weaken, during most months of the year. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the jet stream position and strength to Arctic warming is shown to be a strong function of season. Specifically, in both ocean basins, the jets shift farthest equatorward in the summer months. It is argued that this seasonal sensitivity is due to the Arctic-warming-induced wind anomalies remaining relatively fixed in latitude, while the climatological jet migrates in and out of the anomalies throughout the annual cycle. Based on these results, model differences in the climatological jet stream position are shown to lead to differences in the jet stream position's sensitivity to Arctic warming. |
author2 |
Barnes, Elizabeth A. (author) Simpson, Isla R. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
title_short |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
title_full |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to Arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
title_sort |
seasonal sensitivity of the northern hemisphere jet streams to arctic temperatures on subseasonal time scales |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:21308 ark:/85065/d76q20wn doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0299.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
24 |
container_start_page |
10117 |
op_container_end_page |
10137 |
_version_ |
1776197839759605760 |