Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century
It has been suggested that recent regional trends in Antarctic sea ice might have been caused by the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century. Here we explore this by examining two ensembles of a climate model over the ozone hole formation period (1955-2005). One ensemble includes a...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075618 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21220 2023-09-05T13:11:45+02:00 Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century Landrum, Laura L. (author) Holland, Marika M. (author) Raphael, Marilyn N. (author) Polvani, Lorenzo M. (author) 2017-11-16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075618 en eng Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series--10.5065/D64747WN Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, Version 2--10.5067/J6JQLS9EJ5HU CESM1 Fixed Ozone Ensemble--10.5065/D6JQ0ZRK articles:21220 ark:/85065/d78p6358 doi:10.1002/2017GL075618 Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075618 2023-08-14T18:47:05Z It has been suggested that recent regional trends in Antarctic sea ice might have been caused by the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century. Here we explore this by examining two ensembles of a climate model over the ozone hole formation period (1955-2005). One ensemble includes all known historical forcings; the other is identical except for ozone levels, which are fixed at 1955 levels. We demonstrate that the model is able to capture, on interannual and decadal timescales, the observed statistical relationship between summer Amundsen Sea Low strength (when ozone loss causes a robust deepening) and fall sea ice concentrations (when observed trends are largest). In spite of this, the modeled regional trends caused by ozone depletion are found to be almost exactly opposite to the observed ones. We deduce that the regional character of observed sea ice trends is likely not caused by ozone depletion. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral Geophysical Research Letters 44 21 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
It has been suggested that recent regional trends in Antarctic sea ice might have been caused by the formation of the ozone hole in the late twentieth century. Here we explore this by examining two ensembles of a climate model over the ozone hole formation period (1955-2005). One ensemble includes all known historical forcings; the other is identical except for ozone levels, which are fixed at 1955 levels. We demonstrate that the model is able to capture, on interannual and decadal timescales, the observed statistical relationship between summer Amundsen Sea Low strength (when ozone loss causes a robust deepening) and fall sea ice concentrations (when observed trends are largest). In spite of this, the modeled regional trends caused by ozone depletion are found to be almost exactly opposite to the observed ones. We deduce that the regional character of observed sea ice trends is likely not caused by ozone depletion. |
author2 |
Landrum, Laura L. (author) Holland, Marika M. (author) Raphael, Marilyn N. (author) Polvani, Lorenzo M. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
spellingShingle |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
title_short |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
title_full |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
title_fullStr |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Stratospheric ozone depletion: An unlikely driver of the regional trends in Antarctic sea ice in Austral fall in the late twentieth century |
title_sort |
stratospheric ozone depletion: an unlikely driver of the regional trends in antarctic sea ice in austral fall in the late twentieth century |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075618 |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Austral |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series--10.5065/D64747WN Bootstrap Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS, Version 2--10.5067/J6JQLS9EJ5HU CESM1 Fixed Ozone Ensemble--10.5065/D6JQ0ZRK articles:21220 ark:/85065/d78p6358 doi:10.1002/2017GL075618 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075618 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
44 |
container_issue |
21 |
_version_ |
1776196970418798592 |