The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections
This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30-50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initi...
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21147 2023-09-05T13:21:28+02:00 The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections Deser, Clara (author) Hurrell, James W. (author) Phillips, Adam S. (author) 2017-11-30 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z en eng Climate Dynamics--Clim Dyn--0930-7575--1432-0894 articles:21147 ark:/85065/d74q7xjm doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z Copyright 2017 Springer. article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z 2023-08-14T18:48:58Z This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30-50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of simulations covering the period 1920-2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) at 1A degrees spatial resolution. The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member. Thus, internal variability of the NAO imparts substantial uncertainty to future changes in regional climate over the coming decades. To validate the model results, we apply a simple scaling approach that relates the margin-of-error on a trend to the statistics of the interannual variability. In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively-forced response (given by the ensemble-mean of the 40 simulations). The results of this observationally-based estimate are similar to those obtained directly from the CESM ensemble, attesting to the fidelity of the model's representation of the NAO and the utility of this approach. Finally, we note that the interannual statistics of the NAO and associated surface climate impacts are subject to uncertainty due to sampling fluctuations, even when based on a century of data. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Climate Dynamics 49 9-10 3141 3157 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30-50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of simulations covering the period 1920-2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) at 1A degrees spatial resolution. The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member. Thus, internal variability of the NAO imparts substantial uncertainty to future changes in regional climate over the coming decades. To validate the model results, we apply a simple scaling approach that relates the margin-of-error on a trend to the statistics of the interannual variability. In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively-forced response (given by the ensemble-mean of the 40 simulations). The results of this observationally-based estimate are similar to those obtained directly from the CESM ensemble, attesting to the fidelity of the model's representation of the NAO and the utility of this approach. Finally, we note that the interannual statistics of the NAO and associated surface climate impacts are subject to uncertainty due to sampling fluctuations, even when based on a century of data. |
author2 |
Deser, Clara (author) Hurrell, James W. (author) Phillips, Adam S. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
spellingShingle |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
title_short |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
title_full |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
title_fullStr |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
title_full_unstemmed |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections |
title_sort |
role of the north atlantic oscillation in european climate projections |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Climate Dynamics--Clim Dyn--0930-7575--1432-0894 articles:21147 ark:/85065/d74q7xjm doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 Springer. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
3141 |
op_container_end_page |
3157 |
_version_ |
1776202067214336000 |