Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn
Autumn sea ice trends in the western Ross Sea dominate increases in Antarctic sea ice and are outside the range simulated by climate models. Here we use a number of independent data sets to show that variability in western Ross Sea autumn ice conditions is largely driven by springtime zonal winds in...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_21073 2023-09-05T13:13:21+02:00 Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn Holland, Marika M. (author) Landrum, Laura (author) Raphael, Marilyn (author) Stammerjohn, Sharon (author) 2017-12-28 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 en eng Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series--10.5065/D64747WN articles:21073 ark:/85065/d74b33wv doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 Copyright Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 2023-08-14T18:48:17Z Autumn sea ice trends in the western Ross Sea dominate increases in Antarctic sea ice and are outside the range simulated by climate models. Here we use a number of independent data sets to show that variability in western Ross Sea autumn ice conditions is largely driven by springtime zonal winds in the high latitude South Pacific, with a lead-time of 5 months. Enhanced zonal winds dynamically thin the ice, allowing an earlier melt out, enhanced solar absorption, and reduced ice cover the next autumn. This seasonal lag relationship has implications for sea ice prediction. Given a weakening trend in springtime zonal winds, this lagged relationship can also explain an important fraction of the observed sea ice increase. An analysis of climate models indicates that they simulate weaker relationships and wind trends than observed. This contributes to weak western Ross Sea ice trends in climate model simulations. PLR-1417642 Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ross Sea Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Pacific Ross Sea Nature Communications 8 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Autumn sea ice trends in the western Ross Sea dominate increases in Antarctic sea ice and are outside the range simulated by climate models. Here we use a number of independent data sets to show that variability in western Ross Sea autumn ice conditions is largely driven by springtime zonal winds in the high latitude South Pacific, with a lead-time of 5 months. Enhanced zonal winds dynamically thin the ice, allowing an earlier melt out, enhanced solar absorption, and reduced ice cover the next autumn. This seasonal lag relationship has implications for sea ice prediction. Given a weakening trend in springtime zonal winds, this lagged relationship can also explain an important fraction of the observed sea ice increase. An analysis of climate models indicates that they simulate weaker relationships and wind trends than observed. This contributes to weak western Ross Sea ice trends in climate model simulations. PLR-1417642 |
author2 |
Holland, Marika M. (author) Landrum, Laura (author) Raphael, Marilyn (author) Stammerjohn, Sharon (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
spellingShingle |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
title_short |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
title_full |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
title_fullStr |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
title_full_unstemmed |
Springtime winds drive Ross Sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
title_sort |
springtime winds drive ross sea ice variability and change in the following autumn |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 |
geographic |
Antarctic Pacific Ross Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Pacific Ross Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ross Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ross Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
Nature Communications--Nat Commun--2041-1723 ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series--10.5065/D64747WN articles:21073 ark:/85065/d74b33wv doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 |
op_rights |
Copyright Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00820-0 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1776204659828981760 |