Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model
This study explores the potential predictability of the Southern Ocean (SO) climate on decadal time scales as represented in the GFDL CM2.1 model using prognostic methods. Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictabl...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_20842 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_20842 2023-09-05T13:13:33+02:00 Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Gudgel, Richard G. (author) Jia, Liwei (author) Vecchi, Gabriel A. (author) Zeng, Fanrong (author) 2017-07 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 en eng Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:20842 ark:/85065/d7k64mh5 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 2023-08-14T18:45:47Z This study explores the potential predictability of the Southern Ocean (SO) climate on decadal time scales as represented in the GFDL CM2.1 model using prognostic methods. Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictable variations of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation rates on time scales as long as 20 years. The associated Weddell Sea (WS) subsurface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice have potential predictability comparable to that of the AABW cell. The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the WS and the SO is somewhat smaller, with predictable scales out to a decade. This reduced predictability is likely associated with stronger damping from air-sea interaction. As a complement to this perfect predictability study, the authors also make hindcasts of SO decadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 decadal prediction system. Significant predictive skill for SO SST on multiyear time scales is found in the hindcast system. The success of the hindcasts, especially in reproducing observed surface cooling trends, is largely due to initializing the state of the AABW cell. A weak state of the AABW cell leads to cooler surface conditions and more extensive sea ice. Although there are considerable uncertainties regarding the observational data used to initialize the hindcasts, the consistency between the perfect model experiments and the decadal hindcasts at least gives some indication as to where and to what extent skillful decadal SO forecasts might be possible. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea Weddell Journal of Climate 30 14 5187 5203 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
This study explores the potential predictability of the Southern Ocean (SO) climate on decadal time scales as represented in the GFDL CM2.1 model using prognostic methods. Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictable variations of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation rates on time scales as long as 20 years. The associated Weddell Sea (WS) subsurface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice have potential predictability comparable to that of the AABW cell. The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the WS and the SO is somewhat smaller, with predictable scales out to a decade. This reduced predictability is likely associated with stronger damping from air-sea interaction. As a complement to this perfect predictability study, the authors also make hindcasts of SO decadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 decadal prediction system. Significant predictive skill for SO SST on multiyear time scales is found in the hindcast system. The success of the hindcasts, especially in reproducing observed surface cooling trends, is largely due to initializing the state of the AABW cell. A weak state of the AABW cell leads to cooler surface conditions and more extensive sea ice. Although there are considerable uncertainties regarding the observational data used to initialize the hindcasts, the consistency between the perfect model experiments and the decadal hindcasts at least gives some indication as to where and to what extent skillful decadal SO forecasts might be possible. |
author2 |
Zhang, Liping (author) Delworth, Thomas L. (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Gudgel, Richard G. (author) Jia, Liwei (author) Vecchi, Gabriel A. (author) Zeng, Fanrong (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
spellingShingle |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
title_short |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
title_full |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
title_fullStr |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 Model |
title_sort |
estimating decadal predictability for the southern ocean using the gfdl cm2.1 model |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea Weddell |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea Weddell |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:20842 ark:/85065/d7k64mh5 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
5187 |
op_container_end_page |
5203 |
_version_ |
1776204779161124864 |