Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere
This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are se...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_19835 2023-09-05T13:17:21+02:00 Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere Jia, Liwei (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Vecchi, Gabriel (author) Gudgel, Richard (author) Delworth, Thomas (author) Fueglistaler, Stephan (author) Lin, Pu (author) Scaife, Adam A. (author) Underwood, Seth (author) Lin, Shian-Jiann (author) 2017-06 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 en eng Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:19835 ark:/85065/d77083mn doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 2023-08-14T18:47:24Z This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Journal of Climate 30 12 4463 4475 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere. |
author2 |
Jia, Liwei (author) Yang, Xiaosong (author) Vecchi, Gabriel (author) Gudgel, Richard (author) Delworth, Thomas (author) Fueglistaler, Stephan (author) Lin, Pu (author) Scaife, Adam A. (author) Underwood, Seth (author) Lin, Shian-Jiann (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
spellingShingle |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
title_short |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
title_full |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
title_sort |
seasonal prediction skill of northern extratropical surface temperature driven by the stratosphere |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate--J. Climate--0894-8755--1520-0442 articles:19835 ark:/85065/d77083mn doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
30 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
4463 |
op_container_end_page |
4475 |
_version_ |
1776198554880049152 |