A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_19529 2023-09-05T13:17:21+02:00 A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence Knutti, Reto (author) Sedláček, Jan (author) Sanderson, Benjamin M. (author) Lorenz, Ruth (author) Fischer, Erich M. (author) Eyring, Veronika (author) 2017-02-28 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 en eng Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 articles:19529 ark:/85065/d7fb54r1 doi:10.1002/2016GL072012 Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2017 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 2023-08-14T18:46:13Z Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly. |
author2 |
Knutti, Reto (author) Sedláček, Jan (author) Sanderson, Benjamin M. (author) Lorenz, Ruth (author) Fischer, Erich M. (author) Eyring, Veronika (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
spellingShingle |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_short |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_full |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_fullStr |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_full_unstemmed |
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
title_sort |
climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 articles:19529 ark:/85065/d7fb54r1 doi:10.1002/2016GL072012 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
_version_ |
1776198552903483392 |