Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population
Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmo...
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-972 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806638106 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_19064 2023-09-05T13:14:37+02:00 Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population Jenouvrier, Stéphanie (author) Caswell, Hal (author) Barbraud, Christophe (author) Holland, Marika (author) Strœve, Julienne (author) Weimerskirch, Henri (author) 2009-02-10 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-972 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806638106 en eng National Academies Press Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America articles:19064 ark:/85065/d7ww7kd7 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-972 doi:10.1073/pnas.0806638106 An edited version of this article was published by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright 2009 National Academy of Sciences. Bird populations Climate change Quasi-extinction Sea ice Stochastic matrix population models Text article 2009 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806638106 2023-08-14T18:48:40Z Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Terre Adélie ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) Terre-Adélie ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 6 1844 1847 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Bird populations Climate change Quasi-extinction Sea ice Stochastic matrix population models |
spellingShingle |
Bird populations Climate change Quasi-extinction Sea ice Stochastic matrix population models Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
topic_facet |
Bird populations Climate change Quasi-extinction Sea ice Stochastic matrix population models |
description |
Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. |
author2 |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie (author) Caswell, Hal (author) Barbraud, Christophe (author) Holland, Marika (author) Strœve, Julienne (author) Weimerskirch, Henri (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_short |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_full |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_fullStr |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_sort |
demographic models and ipcc climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
publisher |
National Academies Press |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-972 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806638106 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) |
geographic |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
op_relation |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America articles:19064 ark:/85065/d7ww7kd7 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-972 doi:10.1073/pnas.0806638106 |
op_rights |
An edited version of this article was published by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright 2009 National Academy of Sciences. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806638106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1844 |
op_container_end_page |
1847 |
_version_ |
1776196628137377792 |