How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?
Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the predict...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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2016
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070067 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_18755 2023-09-05T13:16:44+02:00 How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? Jahn, Alexandra (author) Kay, Jennifer E. (author) Holland, Marika M. (author) Hall, David M. (author) 2016-09-16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070067 en eng Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 Sea Ice Index--10.7265/N5QJ7F7W articles:18755 ark:/85065/d7hd7x9s doi:10.1002/2016GL070067 Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. article Text 2016 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070067 2023-08-14T18:43:18Z Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 43 17 9113 9120 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability. |
author2 |
Jahn, Alexandra (author) Kay, Jennifer E. (author) Holland, Marika M. (author) Hall, David M. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
spellingShingle |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
title_short |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
title_full |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
title_fullStr |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
title_full_unstemmed |
How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic? |
title_sort |
how predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free arctic? |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070067 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters--Geophys. Res. Lett.--00948276 Sea Ice Index--10.7265/N5QJ7F7W articles:18755 ark:/85065/d7hd7x9s doi:10.1002/2016GL070067 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070067 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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43 |
container_issue |
17 |
container_start_page |
9113 |
op_container_end_page |
9120 |
_version_ |
1776198209422491648 |