The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones
The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with int...
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Language: | English |
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American Meteorological Society
2016
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-873 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_18427 2023-09-05T13:23:05+02:00 The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones Polvani, Lorenzo (author) Camargo, Suzana (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) 2016-03-15 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-873 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate articles:18427 ark:/85065/d7rn39gn http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-873 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 Copyright 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2016 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 2023-08-14T18:43:38Z The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with interactive stratospheric chemistry. An ensemble of WACCM runs from 2006 to 2065 forced with a standard future scenario is compared to a second ensemble in which ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are not regulated (the so-called World Avoided). It is found that by the year 2065, changes in the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in the World Avoided are nearly 3 times as large as for the standard scenario. The Montreal Protocol thus provides a strong mitigation of the adverse effects of intensifying tropical cyclones. The relative importance of warmer sea surface temperatures (ozone-depleting substances are important greenhouse gases) and cooler lower-stratospheric temperatures (accompanying the massive destruction of the ozone layer) is carefully examined. It is found that the former are largely responsible for the increase in potential intensity in the World Avoided, whereas temperatures above the 70-hPa level--which plunge by nearly 15 K in 2065 in the World Avoided—have no discernible effect on potential intensity. This finding suggests that the modest (compared to the World Avoided) tropical ozone depletion of recent decades has not been a major player in determining the intensity of tropical cyclones, and neither will ozone recovery be in the coming half century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Climate 29 6 2275 2289 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with interactive stratospheric chemistry. An ensemble of WACCM runs from 2006 to 2065 forced with a standard future scenario is compared to a second ensemble in which ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are not regulated (the so-called World Avoided). It is found that by the year 2065, changes in the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in the World Avoided are nearly 3 times as large as for the standard scenario. The Montreal Protocol thus provides a strong mitigation of the adverse effects of intensifying tropical cyclones. The relative importance of warmer sea surface temperatures (ozone-depleting substances are important greenhouse gases) and cooler lower-stratospheric temperatures (accompanying the massive destruction of the ozone layer) is carefully examined. It is found that the former are largely responsible for the increase in potential intensity in the World Avoided, whereas temperatures above the 70-hPa level--which plunge by nearly 15 K in 2065 in the World Avoided—have no discernible effect on potential intensity. This finding suggests that the modest (compared to the World Avoided) tropical ozone depletion of recent decades has not been a major player in determining the intensity of tropical cyclones, and neither will ozone recovery be in the coming half century. |
author2 |
Polvani, Lorenzo (author) Camargo, Suzana (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
spellingShingle |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
title_short |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
title_full |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
The importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
importance of the montreal protocol in mitigating the potential intensity of tropical cyclones |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-873 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate articles:18427 ark:/85065/d7rn39gn http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-873 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2016 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0232.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
29 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2275 |
op_container_end_page |
2289 |
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1776203670774349824 |