Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss
Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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John Wiley & Sons
2015
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-589 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_18006 2023-09-05T13:17:21+02:00 Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss Yeager, Stephen (author) Karspeck, Alicia (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) 2015-12-28 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-589 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364 en eng John Wiley & Sons Geophysical Research Letters articles:18006 ark:/85065/d7r78gr2 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-589 doi:10.1002/2015GL065364 Copyright 2015 American Geophysical Union. Text article 2015 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364 2023-08-14T18:44:51Z Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions. NA13OAR4310138 OCE1243015 Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 42 24 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin-down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near-neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions. NA13OAR4310138 OCE1243015 |
author2 |
Yeager, Stephen (author) Karspeck, Alicia (author) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
spellingShingle |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
title_short |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
title_full |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
predicted slowdown in the rate of atlantic sea ice loss |
publisher |
John Wiley & Sons |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-589 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters articles:18006 ark:/85065/d7r78gr2 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-589 doi:10.1002/2015GL065364 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2015 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065364 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
42 |
container_issue |
24 |
_version_ |
1776198554413432832 |