Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models
We compare new observationally-based data sets of Antarctic near-surface air temperature and snowfall accumulation with 20th century simulations from global climate models (GCMs) that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Annual Antarctic snowfall accumulati...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_17392 2023-09-05T13:13:49+02:00 Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models Monaghan, Andrew (author) Bromwich, David (author) Schneider, David (author) 2008-04-05 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-001-776 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032630 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-001-776 doi:10.1029/2007GL032630 ark:/85065/d7668fgr Copyright 2008 AGU. Text article 2008 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032630 2023-08-14T18:36:16Z We compare new observationally-based data sets of Antarctic near-surface air temperature and snowfall accumulation with 20th century simulations from global climate models (GCMs) that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Annual Antarctic snowfall accumulation trends in the GCMs agree with observations during 1960-1999, and the sensitivity of snowfall accumulation to near-surface air temperature fluctuations is approximately the same as observed, about 5% K-1. Thus if Antarctic temperatures rise as projected, snowfall increases may partially offset ice sheet mass loss by mitigating an additional 1 mm y(-1) of global sea level rise by 2100. However, 20th century (1880-1999) annual Antarctic near-surface air temperature trends in the GCMs are about 2.5-to-5 times larger-than-observed, possibly due to the radiative impact of unrealistic increases in water vapor. Resolving the relative contributions of dynamic and radiative forcing on Antarctic temperature variability in GCMs will lead to more robust 21st century projections. National Science Foundation (NSF): NSF-OPP-0337943 Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 35 7 n/a n/a |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We compare new observationally-based data sets of Antarctic near-surface air temperature and snowfall accumulation with 20th century simulations from global climate models (GCMs) that support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Annual Antarctic snowfall accumulation trends in the GCMs agree with observations during 1960-1999, and the sensitivity of snowfall accumulation to near-surface air temperature fluctuations is approximately the same as observed, about 5% K-1. Thus if Antarctic temperatures rise as projected, snowfall increases may partially offset ice sheet mass loss by mitigating an additional 1 mm y(-1) of global sea level rise by 2100. However, 20th century (1880-1999) annual Antarctic near-surface air temperature trends in the GCMs are about 2.5-to-5 times larger-than-observed, possibly due to the radiative impact of unrealistic increases in water vapor. Resolving the relative contributions of dynamic and radiative forcing on Antarctic temperature variability in GCMs will lead to more robust 21st century projections. National Science Foundation (NSF): NSF-OPP-0337943 |
author2 |
Monaghan, Andrew (author) Bromwich, David (author) Schneider, David (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
spellingShingle |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
title_short |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
title_full |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
title_fullStr |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Twentieth century Antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by IPCC climate models |
title_sort |
twentieth century antarctic air temperature and snowfall simulations by ipcc climate models |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-001-776 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032630 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-001-776 doi:10.1029/2007GL032630 ark:/85065/d7668fgr |
op_rights |
Copyright 2008 AGU. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032630 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
7 |
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n/a |
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_version_ |
1776204975364374528 |