Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss
In early January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold and heavy snowfall to central and eastern North America, causing widespread disruption and monetary losses. The media extensively reported the cold snap, including debate on whether human-induced climate change was partly responsible...
Published in: | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
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American Meteorological Society
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_16973 2023-09-05T13:16:26+02:00 Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss Screen, James (author) Deser, Clara (author) Sun, Lantao (author) 2015-09-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-189 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-189 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 ark:/85065/d7mg7qq9 Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2015 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 2023-08-14T18:42:26Z In early January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold and heavy snowfall to central and eastern North America, causing widespread disruption and monetary losses. The media extensively reported the cold snap, including debate on whether human-induced climate change was partly responsible. Related to this, one particular hypothesis garnered considerable attention: that rapid Arctic sea ice loss may be increasing the risk of cold extremes in the midlatitudes. Here we use large ensembles of model simulations to explore how the risk of North American daily cold extremes is anticipated to change in the future, in response to increases in greenhouse gases and the component of that response solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. Specifically, we examine the changing probability of daily cold extremes as (un)common as the 7 January 2014 event. Projected increases in greenhouse gases decrease the likelihood of North American cold extremes in the future. Days as cold or colder than 7 January 2014 are still projected to occur in the mid-twenty-first century (2030-49), albeit less frequently than in the late twentieth century (1980-99). However, such events will cease to occur by the late twenty-first century (2080-99), assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Continued Arctic sea ice loss is a major driver of decreased--not increased--North America cold extremes. Projected Arctic sea ice loss alone reduces the odds of such an event by one-quarter to one-third by the mid-twenty-first century, and to zero (or near zero) by the late twenty-first century. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 9 1489 1503 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
In early January 2014, an Arctic air outbreak brought extreme cold and heavy snowfall to central and eastern North America, causing widespread disruption and monetary losses. The media extensively reported the cold snap, including debate on whether human-induced climate change was partly responsible. Related to this, one particular hypothesis garnered considerable attention: that rapid Arctic sea ice loss may be increasing the risk of cold extremes in the midlatitudes. Here we use large ensembles of model simulations to explore how the risk of North American daily cold extremes is anticipated to change in the future, in response to increases in greenhouse gases and the component of that response solely due to Arctic sea ice loss. Specifically, we examine the changing probability of daily cold extremes as (un)common as the 7 January 2014 event. Projected increases in greenhouse gases decrease the likelihood of North American cold extremes in the future. Days as cold or colder than 7 January 2014 are still projected to occur in the mid-twenty-first century (2030-49), albeit less frequently than in the late twentieth century (1980-99). However, such events will cease to occur by the late twenty-first century (2080-99), assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. Continued Arctic sea ice loss is a major driver of decreased--not increased--North America cold extremes. Projected Arctic sea ice loss alone reduces the odds of such an event by one-quarter to one-third by the mid-twenty-first century, and to zero (or near zero) by the late twenty-first century. |
author2 |
Screen, James (author) Deser, Clara (author) Sun, Lantao (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
spellingShingle |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_short |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_full |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued Arctic Sea ice loss |
title_sort |
reduced risk of north american cold extremes due to continued arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-189 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-189 doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 ark:/85065/d7mg7qq9 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2015 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 |
container_title |
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
96 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
1489 |
op_container_end_page |
1503 |
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1776198019435200512 |