A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks1, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yield...
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_16948 2023-07-30T04:05:19+02:00 A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium Ortega, Pablo (author) Lehner, Flavio (author) Swingedouw, Didier (author) Masson-Delmotte, Valerie (author) Raible, Christoph (author) Casado, Mathieu (author) Yiou, Pascal (author) 2015-07-02 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-171 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518 en eng Nature Publishing Group Nature http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-171 doi:10.1038/nature14518 ark:/85065/d7js9rph Copyright 2015 Author(s). Published under license by the Nature Publishing Group. Text article 2015 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518 2023-07-17T18:18:24Z The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks1, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi‐proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Nature 523 7558 71 74 |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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language |
English |
description |
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks1, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi‐proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. |
author2 |
Ortega, Pablo (author) Lehner, Flavio (author) Swingedouw, Didier (author) Masson-Delmotte, Valerie (author) Raible, Christoph (author) Casado, Mathieu (author) Yiou, Pascal (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
spellingShingle |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
title_short |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
title_full |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
title_fullStr |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
title_sort |
model-tested north atlantic oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-171 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Nature http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-022-171 doi:10.1038/nature14518 ark:/85065/d7js9rph |
op_rights |
Copyright 2015 Author(s). Published under license by the Nature Publishing Group. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14518 |
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Nature |
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523 |
container_issue |
7558 |
container_start_page |
71 |
op_container_end_page |
74 |
_version_ |
1772817143568531456 |