The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future
Summer climate in the North Atlantic - European sector possesses a principal pattern of year-to-year variability that is the parallel to the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. This summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is defined here as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF)...
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American Meteorological Society
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_15427 2023-07-30T04:05:09+02:00 The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future Folland, Chris (author) Knight, Jeff (author) Linderholm, Hans (author) Fereday, David (author) Ineson, Sarah (author) Hurrell, James (author) 2009-03-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-543 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-543 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 ark:/85065/d77d2w6n Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Climatology Interannual variability Summer/warm season Climate variability Text article 2009 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 2023-07-17T18:21:35Z Summer climate in the North Atlantic - European sector possesses a principal pattern of year-to-year variability that is the parallel to the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. This summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is defined here as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of observed summertime extratropical North Atlantic pressure at mean sea level. It is shown to be characterized by a more northerly location and smaller spatial scale than its winter counterpart. The SNAO is also detected by cluster analysis and has a near-equivalent barotropic structure on daily and monthly time scales. Although of lesser amplitude than its wintertime counterpart, the SNAO exerts a strong influence on northern European rainfall, temperature, and cloudiness through changes in the position of the North Atlantic storm track. It is, therefore, of key importance in generating summer climate extremes, including flooding, drought, and heat stress in northwestern Europe. The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is known to influence summertime European climate; however, interannual variations of the SNAO are only weakly influenced by ENSO. On interdecadal time scales, both modeling and observational results indicate that SNAO variations are partly related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is shown that SNAO variations extend far back in time, as evidenced by reconstructions of SNAO variations back to 1706 using tree-ring records. Very long instrumental records, such as central England temperature, are used to validate the reconstruction. Finally, two climate models are shown to simulate the present-day SNAO and predict a trend toward a more positive index phase in the future under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This implies the long-term likelihood of increased summer drought for northwestern Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Climate 22 5 1082 1103 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Climatology Interannual variability Summer/warm season Climate variability |
spellingShingle |
Climatology Interannual variability Summer/warm season Climate variability The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
topic_facet |
Climatology Interannual variability Summer/warm season Climate variability |
description |
Summer climate in the North Atlantic - European sector possesses a principal pattern of year-to-year variability that is the parallel to the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. This summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is defined here as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of observed summertime extratropical North Atlantic pressure at mean sea level. It is shown to be characterized by a more northerly location and smaller spatial scale than its winter counterpart. The SNAO is also detected by cluster analysis and has a near-equivalent barotropic structure on daily and monthly time scales. Although of lesser amplitude than its wintertime counterpart, the SNAO exerts a strong influence on northern European rainfall, temperature, and cloudiness through changes in the position of the North Atlantic storm track. It is, therefore, of key importance in generating summer climate extremes, including flooding, drought, and heat stress in northwestern Europe. The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is known to influence summertime European climate; however, interannual variations of the SNAO are only weakly influenced by ENSO. On interdecadal time scales, both modeling and observational results indicate that SNAO variations are partly related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is shown that SNAO variations extend far back in time, as evidenced by reconstructions of SNAO variations back to 1706 using tree-ring records. Very long instrumental records, such as central England temperature, are used to validate the reconstruction. Finally, two climate models are shown to simulate the present-day SNAO and predict a trend toward a more positive index phase in the future under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This implies the long-term likelihood of increased summer drought for northwestern Europe. |
author2 |
Folland, Chris (author) Knight, Jeff (author) Linderholm, Hans (author) Fereday, David (author) Ineson, Sarah (author) Hurrell, James (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
title_short |
The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
title_full |
The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
title_fullStr |
The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
title_full_unstemmed |
The summer North Atlantic oscillation: Past, present, and future |
title_sort |
summer north atlantic oscillation: past, present, and future |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-543 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-543 doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 ark:/85065/d77d2w6n |
op_rights |
Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2459.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1082 |
op_container_end_page |
1103 |
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1772816909984595968 |