Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent
We present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982-2013 period using two suites of retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year-to-year fluctuations of Arctic SIE, with...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_14381 2023-05-15T14:49:36+02:00 Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent Msadek, Rym (Rym Msadek) (authoraut) Vecchi, G. (G. A. Vecchi) (authoraut) Winton, M. (M. Winton) (authoraut) Gudgel, R. (R. G. Gudgel) (authoraut) application/pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 articles:14381 uri: http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-021-180 doi:10.1002/2014GL060799 ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc Copyright 2014 American Geophysical Union. Text article ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 2022-08-09T17:42:42Z We present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982-2013 period using two suites of retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year-to-year fluctuations of Arctic SIE, with significant correlations up to 7 month ahead for September detrended anomalies. Predictions over the recent era, which coincides with an improved observational coverage, outperform the earlier period for most target months. We find, however, a degradation of skill in September during the last decade, a period of sea ice thinning in observations. The two prediction models, Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) and Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR), share very similar ocean and ice component and initialization but differ by their atmospheric component. FLOR has improved climatological atmospheric circulation and sea ice mean state, but its skill is overall similar to CM2.1 for most seasons, which suggests a key role for initial conditions in predicting seasonal SIE fluctuations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 41 14 5208 5215 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We present seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the 1982-2013 period using two suites of retrospective forecasts initialized from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice assimilation system. High skill scores are found in predicting year-to-year fluctuations of Arctic SIE, with significant correlations up to 7 month ahead for September detrended anomalies. Predictions over the recent era, which coincides with an improved observational coverage, outperform the earlier period for most target months. We find, however, a degradation of skill in September during the last decade, a period of sea ice thinning in observations. The two prediction models, Climate Model version 2.1 (CM2.1) and Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR), share very similar ocean and ice component and initialization but differ by their atmospheric component. FLOR has improved climatological atmospheric circulation and sea ice mean state, but its skill is overall similar to CM2.1 for most seasons, which suggests a key role for initial conditions in predicting seasonal SIE fluctuations. |
author2 |
Msadek, Rym (Rym Msadek) (authoraut) Vecchi, G. (G. A. Vecchi) (authoraut) Winton, M. (M. Winton) (authoraut) Gudgel, R. (R. G. Gudgel) (authoraut) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
spellingShingle |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
title_short |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
title_full |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
title_fullStr |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
title_full_unstemmed |
Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent |
title_sort |
importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of arctic sea ice extent |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 articles:14381 uri: http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-021-180 doi:10.1002/2014GL060799 ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2qzc |
op_rights |
Copyright 2014 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060799 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
41 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
5208 |
op_container_end_page |
5215 |
_version_ |
1766320688870719488 |