Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000-61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse...
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American Meteorological Society
2014
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_13196 2023-09-05T13:16:11+02:00 Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation Wettstein, Justin (author) Deser, Clara (author) 2014-01-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-244 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-244 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 ark:/85065/d7pv6m88 Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate models Climate variability Text article 2014 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 2023-08-14T18:41:00Z Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000-61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse gas emissions scenario and differs only in the atmospheric model component's initial condition. September Arctic sea ice extent trends during 2020-59 range from −2.0 × 10⁶ to -5.7 × 10⁶ km² across the 39 ensemble members, indicating a substantial role for internal variability in future Arctic sea ice loss projections. A similar nearly threefold range (from -7.0 × 10³ to −19 × 10³ km²) is found for summer sea ice volume trends. Higher rates of summer Arctic sea ice loss in CCSM3 are associated with enhanced transpolar drift and Fram Strait ice export driven by surface wind and sea level pressure patterns. Over the Arctic, the covarying atmospheric circulation patterns resemble the so-called Arctic dipole, with maximum amplitude between April and July. Outside the Arctic, an atmospheric Rossby wave train over the Pacific sector is associated with internal ice loss variability. Interannual covariability patterns between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are similar to those based on trends, suggesting that similar processes govern internal variability over a broad range of time scales. Interannual patterns of CCSM3 ice-atmosphere covariability compare well with those in nature and in the newer CCSM4 version of the model, lending confidence to the results. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns in CCSM3 suggest that the tropical Pacific modulates Arctic sea ice variability via the aforementioned Rossby wave train. Large ensembles with other coupled models are needed to corroborate these CCSM3-based findings. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Fram Strait Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Pacific Journal of Climate 27 2 527 550 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate models Climate variability |
spellingShingle |
Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate models Climate variability Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
topic_facet |
Sea ice Atmospheric circulation Atmosphere-ocean interaction Climate change Climate models Climate variability |
description |
Internal variability in twenty-first-century summer Arctic sea ice loss and its relationship to the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated in a 39-member Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) ensemble for the period 2000-61. Each member is subject to an identical greenhouse gas emissions scenario and differs only in the atmospheric model component's initial condition. September Arctic sea ice extent trends during 2020-59 range from −2.0 × 10⁶ to -5.7 × 10⁶ km² across the 39 ensemble members, indicating a substantial role for internal variability in future Arctic sea ice loss projections. A similar nearly threefold range (from -7.0 × 10³ to −19 × 10³ km²) is found for summer sea ice volume trends. Higher rates of summer Arctic sea ice loss in CCSM3 are associated with enhanced transpolar drift and Fram Strait ice export driven by surface wind and sea level pressure patterns. Over the Arctic, the covarying atmospheric circulation patterns resemble the so-called Arctic dipole, with maximum amplitude between April and July. Outside the Arctic, an atmospheric Rossby wave train over the Pacific sector is associated with internal ice loss variability. Interannual covariability patterns between sea ice and atmospheric circulation are similar to those based on trends, suggesting that similar processes govern internal variability over a broad range of time scales. Interannual patterns of CCSM3 ice-atmosphere covariability compare well with those in nature and in the newer CCSM4 version of the model, lending confidence to the results. Atmospheric teleconnection patterns in CCSM3 suggest that the tropical Pacific modulates Arctic sea ice variability via the aforementioned Rossby wave train. Large ensembles with other coupled models are needed to corroborate these CCSM3-based findings. |
author2 |
Wettstein, Justin (author) Deser, Clara (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_short |
Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full |
Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_fullStr |
Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
title_sort |
internal variability in projections of twenty-first-century arctic sea ice loss: role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-244 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Fram Strait Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Fram Strait Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-244 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 ark:/85065/d7pv6m88 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
527 |
op_container_end_page |
550 |
_version_ |
1776197861032067072 |