Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes
This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy f...
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American Meteorological Society
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_13181 2023-09-05T13:19:50+02:00 Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes Vizcaíno, Miren (author) Lipscomb, William (author) Sacks, William (author) van den Broeke, Michiel (author) 2014-01-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-224 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-224 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 ark:/85065/d7n017f4 Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Ice sheets Sea level Climate prediction Climate models Atmosphere-land interaction Text article 2014 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 2023-08-14T18:40:58Z This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr⁻¹ in 1980-99 to −78 ± 143 Gt yr⁻¹ in 2080-99. The 2080-99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980-99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980-99 to 28% in 2080-99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980-99 to 0.75 in 2080-99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt. ANT1103686 Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Greenland Journal of Climate 27 1 215 226 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Ice sheets Sea level Climate prediction Climate models Atmosphere-land interaction |
spellingShingle |
Ice sheets Sea level Climate prediction Climate models Atmosphere-land interaction Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
topic_facet |
Ice sheets Sea level Climate prediction Climate models Atmosphere-land interaction |
description |
This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr⁻¹ in 1980-99 to −78 ± 143 Gt yr⁻¹ in 2080-99. The 2080-99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980-99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980-99 to 28% in 2080-99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980-99 to 0.75 in 2080-99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt. ANT1103686 |
author2 |
Vizcaíno, Miren (author) Lipscomb, William (author) Sacks, William (author) van den Broeke, Michiel (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
title_short |
Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
title_full |
Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
title_fullStr |
Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-first-century changes |
title_sort |
greenland surface mass balance as simulated by the community earth system model. part ii: twenty-first-century changes |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-224 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet Sea ice |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-020-224 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 ark:/85065/d7n017f4 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00588.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
215 |
op_container_end_page |
226 |
_version_ |
1776200632599838720 |