Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3
We assess initial-value predictability characteristics of Antarctic sea ice from climate simulations. The integrations are initialized on 1 January with identical ice-ocean-terrestrial conditions and integrated forward for two years. We find that the initialized ice-ocean state provides predictive c...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2013
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-940 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50410 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_13038 2023-09-05T13:12:23+02:00 Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 Holland, Marika (author) Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward (author) Kay, Jennifer (author) Vavrus, Steven (author) 2013-05-28 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-940 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50410 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-940 doi:10.1002/grl.50410 ark:/85065/d73t9j45 Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union. Text article 2013 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50410 2023-08-14T18:38:31Z We assess initial-value predictability characteristics of Antarctic sea ice from climate simulations. The integrations are initialized on 1 January with identical ice-ocean-terrestrial conditions and integrated forward for two years. We find that the initialized ice-ocean state provides predictive capability on the ice-edge location around Antarctica for the first several months of integration. During the ice advance season from April to September, significant predictability is retained in some locations with an eastward propagating signal. This is consistent with previous work suggesting the advection of sea ice anomalies with the mean ocean circulation. The ice-edge predictability is then generally lost during the ice retreat season after October. However, predictability reemerges during the next year's ice advance starting around June in some locations. This reemergence is associated with ocean heat content anomalies that are retained at depth during the austral summer and resurface during the following autumn as the ocean mixed layers deepen. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Austral Geophysical Research Letters 40 10 2121 2124 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We assess initial-value predictability characteristics of Antarctic sea ice from climate simulations. The integrations are initialized on 1 January with identical ice-ocean-terrestrial conditions and integrated forward for two years. We find that the initialized ice-ocean state provides predictive capability on the ice-edge location around Antarctica for the first several months of integration. During the ice advance season from April to September, significant predictability is retained in some locations with an eastward propagating signal. This is consistent with previous work suggesting the advection of sea ice anomalies with the mean ocean circulation. The ice-edge predictability is then generally lost during the ice retreat season after October. However, predictability reemerges during the next year's ice advance starting around June in some locations. This reemergence is associated with ocean heat content anomalies that are retained at depth during the austral summer and resurface during the following autumn as the ocean mixed layers deepen. |
author2 |
Holland, Marika (author) Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward (author) Kay, Jennifer (author) Vavrus, Steven (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
spellingShingle |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
title_short |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
title_full |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
title_fullStr |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3 |
title_sort |
initial-value predictability of antarctic sea ice in the community climate system model 3 |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-940 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50410 |
geographic |
Antarctic Austral |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Austral |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-940 doi:10.1002/grl.50410 ark:/85065/d73t9j45 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50410 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2121 |
op_container_end_page |
2124 |
_version_ |
1776200079808397312 |