Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate...
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-569 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12802 2023-09-05T13:22:26+02:00 Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change Schuur, E. (author) Abbott, B. (author) Bowden, W. (author) Brovkin, V. (author) Camill, P. (author) Canadell, J. (author) Chanton, J. (author) Chapin, F. (author) Christensen, T. (author) Ciais, P. (author) Crosby, B. (author) Czimczik, C. (author) Grosse, G. (author) Harden, J. (author) Hayes, D. (author) Hugelius, G. (author) Jastrow, J. (author) Jones, J. (author) Kleinen, T. (author) Koven, C. (author) Krinner, G. (author) Kuhry, P. (author) Lawrence, David (author) McGuire, A. (author) Natali, S. (author) Ping, C. (author) Riley, W. (author) Rinke, A. (author) Romanovsky, V. (author) Sannel, A. (author) Schädel, C. (author) Schaefer, K. (author) Sky, J. (author) Subin, Z. (author) Tarnocai, C. (author) Turetsky, M. (author) Waldrop, M. (author) Anthony, K. (author) Wickland, K. (author) Wilson, C. (author) Zimov, S. (author) 2013-07-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-569 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 en eng Springer Climatic Change http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-569 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 ark:/85065/d7m0469r Copyright 2013 Springer Netherlands Text article 2013 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 2023-08-14T18:39:18Z Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Climatic Change 119 2 359 374 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. |
author2 |
Schuur, E. (author) Abbott, B. (author) Bowden, W. (author) Brovkin, V. (author) Camill, P. (author) Canadell, J. (author) Chanton, J. (author) Chapin, F. (author) Christensen, T. (author) Ciais, P. (author) Crosby, B. (author) Czimczik, C. (author) Grosse, G. (author) Harden, J. (author) Hayes, D. (author) Hugelius, G. (author) Jastrow, J. (author) Jones, J. (author) Kleinen, T. (author) Koven, C. (author) Krinner, G. (author) Kuhry, P. (author) Lawrence, David (author) McGuire, A. (author) Natali, S. (author) Ping, C. (author) Riley, W. (author) Rinke, A. (author) Romanovsky, V. (author) Sannel, A. (author) Schädel, C. (author) Schaefer, K. (author) Sky, J. (author) Subin, Z. (author) Tarnocai, C. (author) Turetsky, M. (author) Waldrop, M. (author) Anthony, K. (author) Wickland, K. (author) Wilson, C. (author) Zimov, S. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
spellingShingle |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_short |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_fullStr |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
title_sort |
expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-569 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Climatic Change http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-569 doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 ark:/85065/d7m0469r |
op_rights |
Copyright 2013 Springer Netherlands |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7 |
container_title |
Climatic Change |
container_volume |
119 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
359 |
op_container_end_page |
374 |
_version_ |
1776202944523272192 |