Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability
Sea level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with potentially harmful effects on human populations in coastal and island regions. Observational evidence indicates that global sea level has risen in the 20th century, and climate models project an acc...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2013
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-085 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12759 2023-09-05T13:21:31+02:00 Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability Hu, Aixue (author) Deser, Clara (author) 2013-06-16 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-085 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-085 doi:10.1002/grl.50531 ark:/85065/d7542pfx Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union. Text article 2013 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531 2023-08-14T18:39:22Z Sea level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with potentially harmful effects on human populations in coastal and island regions. Observational evidence indicates that global sea level has risen in the 20th century, and climate models project an acceleration of this trend in the coming decades. Here we analyze rates of future SLR on regional scales in a 40-member ensemble of climate change projections with the Community Climate System Model Version 3. This unique ensemble allows us to assess uncertainty in the magnitude of 21st century SLR due to internal climate variability alone. We find that simulated regional SLR at mid-century can vary by a factor of 2 depending on location, with the North Atlantic and Pacific showing the greatest range. This uncertainty in regional SLR results primarily from internal variations in the wind-driven and buoyancy-driven ocean circulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Pacific Geophysical Research Letters 40 11 2768 2772 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
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ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Sea level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with potentially harmful effects on human populations in coastal and island regions. Observational evidence indicates that global sea level has risen in the 20th century, and climate models project an acceleration of this trend in the coming decades. Here we analyze rates of future SLR on regional scales in a 40-member ensemble of climate change projections with the Community Climate System Model Version 3. This unique ensemble allows us to assess uncertainty in the magnitude of 21st century SLR due to internal climate variability alone. We find that simulated regional SLR at mid-century can vary by a factor of 2 depending on location, with the North Atlantic and Pacific showing the greatest range. This uncertainty in regional SLR results primarily from internal variations in the wind-driven and buoyancy-driven ocean circulations. |
author2 |
Hu, Aixue (author) Deser, Clara (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
spellingShingle |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
title_short |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
title_full |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
title_sort |
uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-085 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-019-085 doi:10.1002/grl.50531 ark:/85065/d7542pfx |
op_rights |
Copyright 2013 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50531 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
40 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
2768 |
op_container_end_page |
2772 |
_version_ |
1776202112721485824 |