A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system
The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2013
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-015-545 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 |
id |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12565 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12565 2023-09-05T13:12:59+02:00 A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system Yang, Xiaosong (author) Rosati, A. (author) Zhang, S. (author) Delworth, T. (author) Gudgel, R. (author) Zhang, R. (author) Vecchi, G. (author) Anderson, W. (author) Chang, You-Soon (author) DelSole, T. (author) Dixon, K. (author) M'sadek, Rym (author) Stern, W. (author) Wittenberg, A. (author) Zeng, F. (author) 2013-01-15 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-015-545 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-015-545 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 ark:/85065/d7ff3t5z Copyright 2013 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2013 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 2023-08-14T18:39:08Z The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (APT) analysis. Comparison of retrospective forecasts initialized using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations using the same model allows identification of the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) for SST and T2m. The IMP of SST is characterized by an interhemisphere dipole, with warm anomalies centered in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region and North Pacific subpolar gyre region, and cold anomalies centered in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The IMP of T2m is characterized by a general bipolar seesaw, with warm anomalies centered in Greenland and cold anomalies centered in Antarctica. The retrospective prediction skill of the initialized system, verified against independent observational datasets, indicates that the IMP of SST may be predictable up to 4 (10) yr lead time at 95% (90%) significance level, and the IMP of T2m may be predictable up to 2 (10) yr at the 95% (90%) significance level. The initialization of multidecadal variations of northward oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic significantly improves the predictive skill of the IMP. The dominant roles of oceanic internal dynamics in decadal prediction are further elucidated by fixed-forcing experiments in which radiative forcing is returned abruptly to 1961 values. These results point toward the possibility of meaningful decadal climate outlooks using dynamical coupled models if they are appropriately initialized from a sustained climate observing system. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Greenland Pacific The Antarctic Journal of Climate 26 2 650 661 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The decadal predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) and 2-m air temperature (T2m) in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) decadal hindcasts, which are part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments, has been investigated using an average predictability time (APT) analysis. Comparison of retrospective forecasts initialized using the GFDL Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation system with uninitialized historical forcing simulations using the same model allows identification of the internal multidecadal pattern (IMP) for SST and T2m. The IMP of SST is characterized by an interhemisphere dipole, with warm anomalies centered in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region and North Pacific subpolar gyre region, and cold anomalies centered in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. The IMP of T2m is characterized by a general bipolar seesaw, with warm anomalies centered in Greenland and cold anomalies centered in Antarctica. The retrospective prediction skill of the initialized system, verified against independent observational datasets, indicates that the IMP of SST may be predictable up to 4 (10) yr lead time at 95% (90%) significance level, and the IMP of T2m may be predictable up to 2 (10) yr at the 95% (90%) significance level. The initialization of multidecadal variations of northward oceanic heat transport in the North Atlantic significantly improves the predictive skill of the IMP. The dominant roles of oceanic internal dynamics in decadal prediction are further elucidated by fixed-forcing experiments in which radiative forcing is returned abruptly to 1961 values. These results point toward the possibility of meaningful decadal climate outlooks using dynamical coupled models if they are appropriately initialized from a sustained climate observing system. |
author2 |
Yang, Xiaosong (author) Rosati, A. (author) Zhang, S. (author) Delworth, T. (author) Gudgel, R. (author) Zhang, R. (author) Vecchi, G. (author) Anderson, W. (author) Chang, You-Soon (author) DelSole, T. (author) Dixon, K. (author) M'sadek, Rym (author) Stern, W. (author) Wittenberg, A. (author) Zeng, F. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
spellingShingle |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
title_short |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
title_full |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
title_fullStr |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
title_sort |
predictable amo-like pattern in the gfdl fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-015-545 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland Pacific The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland Pacific The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-015-545 doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 ark:/85065/d7ff3t5z |
op_rights |
Copyright 2013 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
26 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
650 |
op_container_end_page |
661 |
_version_ |
1776202659847471104 |