Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery
We investigate the effect of stratospheric ozone recovery on Antarctic sea ice in the next half-century, by comparing two ensembles of integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, from 2001 to 2065. One ensemble is performed by specifying all forcings as per the Representative Conce...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2012
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-557 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12405 2023-09-05T13:14:07+02:00 Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery Smith, Karen (author) Polvani, Lorenzo (author) Marsh, Daniel (author) 2012-10-16 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-557 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-557 doi:10.1029/2012GL053325 ark:/85065/d7x34z7s Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union. Text article 2012 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325 2023-08-14T18:38:51Z We investigate the effect of stratospheric ozone recovery on Antarctic sea ice in the next half-century, by comparing two ensembles of integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, from 2001 to 2065. One ensemble is performed by specifying all forcings as per the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; the second ensemble is identical in all respects, except for the surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances, which are held fixed at year 2000 levels, thus preventing stratospheric ozone recovery. Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. However, we find that sea ice loss is ~33% greater for the ensemble in which stratospheric ozone recovery does not take place, and that this effect is statistically significant. Our results, which confirm a previous study dealing with ozone depletion, suggest that ozone recovery will substantially mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss in the coming decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 39 20 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
We investigate the effect of stratospheric ozone recovery on Antarctic sea ice in the next half-century, by comparing two ensembles of integrations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, from 2001 to 2065. One ensemble is performed by specifying all forcings as per the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5; the second ensemble is identical in all respects, except for the surface concentrations of ozone depleting substances, which are held fixed at year 2000 levels, thus preventing stratospheric ozone recovery. Sea ice extent declines in both ensembles, as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. However, we find that sea ice loss is ~33% greater for the ensemble in which stratospheric ozone recovery does not take place, and that this effect is statistically significant. Our results, which confirm a previous study dealing with ozone depletion, suggest that ozone recovery will substantially mitigate Antarctic sea ice loss in the coming decades. |
author2 |
Smith, Karen (author) Polvani, Lorenzo (author) Marsh, Daniel (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
spellingShingle |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
title_short |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
title_full |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
title_fullStr |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
title_sort |
mitigation of 21st century antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-557 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-557 doi:10.1029/2012GL053325 ark:/85065/d7x34z7s |
op_rights |
Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053325 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
39 |
container_issue |
20 |
_version_ |
1776205171551895552 |