Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating i...
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American Geophysical Union
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12305 2023-09-05T13:16:44+02:00 Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations Stroeve, Julienne (author) Kattsov, Vladimir (author) Barrett, Andrew (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Pavlova, Tatiana (author) Holland, Marika (author) Meier, Walter (author) 2012-08-25 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-385 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-385 doi:10.1029/2012GL052676 ark:/85065/d7w66mhq Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union. Text article 2012 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676 2023-08-14T18:39:32Z The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979-2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Arctic Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 39 16 n/a n/a |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979-2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized. |
author2 |
Stroeve, Julienne (author) Kattsov, Vladimir (author) Barrett, Andrew (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Pavlova, Tatiana (author) Holland, Marika (author) Meier, Walter (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
spellingShingle |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
title_short |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
title_full |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
title_fullStr |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations |
title_sort |
trends in arctic sea ice extent from cmip5, cmip3 and observations |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-385 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-385 doi:10.1029/2012GL052676 ark:/85065/d7w66mhq |
op_rights |
Copyright 2012 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
39 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
n/a |
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n/a |
_version_ |
1776198209585020928 |