Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models
Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population...
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Language: | English |
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Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
2012
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-383 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12304 2023-09-05T13:13:25+02:00 Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models Jenouvrier, Stephanie (author) Holland, Marika (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) Barbraud, Christophe (author) Weimerskirch, Henri (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Caswell, Hal (author) 2012-09 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-383 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x en eng Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Global Change Biology http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-383 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x ark:/85065/d74q7vrg Copyright 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Text article 2012 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x 2023-08-14T18:39:32Z Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Terre Adélie ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) Terre-Adélie ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) The Antarctic Global Change Biology 18 9 2756 2770 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic ... |
author2 |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie (author) Holland, Marika (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) Barbraud, Christophe (author) Weimerskirch, Henri (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Caswell, Hal (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
spellingShingle |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
title_short |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
title_full |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
title_fullStr |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: Analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
title_sort |
effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models |
publisher |
Blackwell Publishing Ltd. |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-383 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) |
geographic |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
op_relation |
Global Change Biology http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-011-383 doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x ark:/85065/d74q7vrg |
op_rights |
Copyright 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
2756 |
op_container_end_page |
2770 |
_version_ |
1776204700145680384 |