Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice
The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2011
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-978 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12145 2023-09-05T13:16:10+02:00 Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward (author) Bitz, Cecilia (author) Holland, Marika (author) 2011-09-21 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-978 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807 en eng American Geophysical Union Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-978 doi:10.1029/2011GL048807 ark:/85065/d7765g2z Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. Cryosphere modeling Polar meteorology Global climate models Cryosphere sea ice Text article 2011 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807 2023-08-14T18:41:15Z The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state-of-the-art global circulation model (GCM) under a ‘perfect model’ assumption. We demonstrate initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1-2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2-4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area-thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3-4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates. Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 38 18 n/a n/a |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Cryosphere modeling Polar meteorology Global climate models Cryosphere sea ice |
spellingShingle |
Cryosphere modeling Polar meteorology Global climate models Cryosphere sea ice Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
topic_facet |
Cryosphere modeling Polar meteorology Global climate models Cryosphere sea ice |
description |
The recent sharp decline in Arctic sea ice has triggered an increase in the interest of Arctic sea ice predictability, not least driven by the potential of significant human industrial activity in the region. In this study we quantify how long Arctic sea ice predictability is dominated by dependence on its initial conditions versus dependence on its secular decline in a state-of-the-art global circulation model (GCM) under a ‘perfect model’ assumption. We demonstrate initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice area is continuous for 1-2 years, after which predictability is intermittent in the 2-4 year range. Predictability of area at these longer lead times is associated with strong area-thickness coupling in the summer season. Initial-value predictability of pan-Arctic sea ice volume is significant continuously for 3-4 years, after which time predictability from secular trends dominates. Thus we conclude predictability of Arctic sea ice beyond 3 years is dominated by climate forcing rather than initial conditions. Additionally, we find that forecast of summer conditions are equally good from the previous September or January initial conditions. |
author2 |
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward (author) Bitz, Cecilia (author) Holland, Marika (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
influence of initial conditions and climate forcing on predicting arctic sea ice |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-978 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Geophysical Research Letters http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-978 doi:10.1029/2011GL048807 ark:/85065/d7765g2z |
op_rights |
Copyright 2011 American Geophysical Union. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048807 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
38 |
container_issue |
18 |
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n/a |
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_version_ |
1776197853657432064 |