Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking
North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatu...
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American Meteorological Society
2011
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_12068 2023-07-30T04:05:13+02:00 Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking Sillmann, Jana (author) Croci-Maspoli, Mischa (author) Kallache, Malaak (author) Katz, Richard (author) 2011-11-15 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-865 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-865 doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 ark:/85065/d77w6cx6 Copyright 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Blocking Statistical techniques North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Text article 2011 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 2023-07-17T18:22:40Z North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961-2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Journal of Climate 24 22 5899 5913 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
topic |
Blocking Statistical techniques North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events |
spellingShingle |
Blocking Statistical techniques North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
topic_facet |
Blocking Statistical techniques North Atlantic Ocean Extreme events |
description |
North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is fitted to monthly minima of European winter 6-hourly minimum temperatures from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA-40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961-2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe. |
author2 |
Sillmann, Jana (author) Croci-Maspoli, Mischa (author) Kallache, Malaak (author) Katz, Richard (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
title_short |
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
title_full |
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
title_fullStr |
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking |
title_sort |
extreme cold winter temperatures in europe under the influence of north atlantic atmospheric blocking |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-865 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-010-865 doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 ark:/85065/d77w6cx6 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
22 |
container_start_page |
5899 |
op_container_end_page |
5913 |
_version_ |
1772816991935004672 |