Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations
Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the aut...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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American Meteorological Society
2010
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-706 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 |
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Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWCis experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties ... |
author2 |
Rawlins, Michael (author) Steele, Michael (author) Holland, Marika (author) Adam, Jennifer (author) Cherry, Jessica (author) Francis, Jennifer (author) Groisman, Pavel (author) Hinzman, Larry (author) Huntington, Thomas (author) Kane, Douglas (author) Kimball, John (author) Kwok, Ron (author) Lammers, Richard (author) Lee, Craig (author) Lettenmaier, Dennis (author) McDonald, Kyle (author) Podest, Erika (author) Pundsack, Jonathan (author) Rudels, Bert (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Shiklomanov, Alexander (author) Skagseth, Øystein (author) Troy, Tara (author) Vöeröesmarty, Charles (author) Wensnahan, Mark (author) Wood, Eric (author) Woodgate, Rebecca (author) Yang, Daqing (author) Zhang, Ke (author) Zhang, Tingjun (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
spellingShingle |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
title_short |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
title_full |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
title_fullStr |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations |
title_sort |
analysis of the arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: observations and expectations |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-706 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
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Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea |
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Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-706 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 wos: 000284463700010 ark:/85065/d7th8n87 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
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https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 |
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Journal of Climate |
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23 |
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21 |
container_start_page |
5715 |
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5737 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_10880 2023-09-05T13:16:13+02:00 Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations Rawlins, Michael (author) Steele, Michael (author) Holland, Marika (author) Adam, Jennifer (author) Cherry, Jessica (author) Francis, Jennifer (author) Groisman, Pavel (author) Hinzman, Larry (author) Huntington, Thomas (author) Kane, Douglas (author) Kimball, John (author) Kwok, Ron (author) Lammers, Richard (author) Lee, Craig (author) Lettenmaier, Dennis (author) McDonald, Kyle (author) Podest, Erika (author) Pundsack, Jonathan (author) Rudels, Bert (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Shiklomanov, Alexander (author) Skagseth, Øystein (author) Troy, Tara (author) Vöeröesmarty, Charles (author) Wensnahan, Mark (author) Wood, Eric (author) Woodgate, Rebecca (author) Yang, Daqing (author) Zhang, Ke (author) Zhang, Tingjun (author) 2010-11-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-706 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-003-706 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 wos: 000284463700010 ark:/85065/d7th8n87 Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2010 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3421.1 2023-08-14T18:38:06Z Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWCis experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Arctic Ocean Barents Sea Journal of Climate 23 21 5715 5737 |