Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for whic...

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Published in:Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Other Authors: Kumar, A. (author), Done, James (author), Dudhia, Jimy (author)
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: Springer 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-559
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9
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spelling ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_10576 2023-09-05T13:21:46+02:00 Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing Kumar, A. (author) Done, James (author) Dudhia, Jimy (author) 2011-11-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-559 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9 en eng Springer Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-559 doi:10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9 ark:/85065/d7cj8f0g Copyright 2011 Springer-Verlag. Text article 2011 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9 2023-08-14T18:39:25Z The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr’s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr’s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 114 3-4 123 137
institution Open Polar
collection OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)
op_collection_id ftncar
language English
description The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr’s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr’s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was ...
author2 Kumar, A. (author)
Done, James (author)
Dudhia, Jimy (author)
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
title Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
spellingShingle Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
title_short Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
title_full Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
title_fullStr Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
title_full_unstemmed Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a high-resolution model: Sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
title_sort simulations of cyclone sidr in the bay of bengal with a high-resolution model: sensitivity to large-scale boundary forcing
publisher Springer
publishDate 2011
url http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-559
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-559
doi:10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9
ark:/85065/d7cj8f0g
op_rights Copyright 2011 Springer-Verlag.
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0161-9
container_title Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
container_volume 114
container_issue 3-4
container_start_page 123
op_container_end_page 137
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