Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes
The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry-climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooli...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2010
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-098 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 |
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Open Polar |
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OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry-climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade⁻¹ at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade⁻¹ at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade⁻¹ in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade⁻¹, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward ... |
author2 |
Butchart, Neal (author) Cionni, I. (author) Eyring, V. (author) Shepherd, T. (author) Waugh, D. (author) Akiyoshi, H. (author) Austin, J. (author) Brühl, C. (author) Chipperfield, M. (author) Cordero, E. (author) Dameris, M. (author) Deckert, R. (author) Dhomse, S. (author) Frith, S. (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) Gettelman, Andrew (author) Giorgetta, M. (author) Kinnison, Douglas (author) Li, F. (author) Mancini, E. (author) McLandress, C. (author) Pawson, S. (author) Pitari, G. (author) Plummer, D. (author) Rozanov, E. (author) Sassi, F. (author) Scinocca, J. (author) Shibata, K. (author) Steil, B. (author) Tian, W. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
spellingShingle |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
title_short |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
title_full |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
title_fullStr |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
title_sort |
chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-098 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-098 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 ark:/85065/d7sx6drp |
op_rights |
Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
20 |
container_start_page |
5349 |
op_container_end_page |
5374 |
_version_ |
1776204844502089728 |
spelling |
ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_10555 2023-09-05T13:13:38+02:00 Chemistry-climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes Butchart, Neal (author) Cionni, I. (author) Eyring, V. (author) Shepherd, T. (author) Waugh, D. (author) Akiyoshi, H. (author) Austin, J. (author) Brühl, C. (author) Chipperfield, M. (author) Cordero, E. (author) Dameris, M. (author) Deckert, R. (author) Dhomse, S. (author) Frith, S. (author) Garcia, Rolando (author) Gettelman, Andrew (author) Giorgetta, M. (author) Kinnison, Douglas (author) Li, F. (author) Mancini, E. (author) McLandress, C. (author) Pawson, S. (author) Pitari, G. (author) Plummer, D. (author) Rozanov, E. (author) Sassi, F. (author) Scinocca, J. (author) Shibata, K. (author) Steil, B. (author) Tian, W. (author) 2010-10-15 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-098 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 en eng American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-098 doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 ark:/85065/d7sx6drp Copyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work. Text article 2010 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1 2023-08-14T18:38:58Z The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry-climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 ± 0.07 K decade⁻¹ at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade⁻¹ at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade⁻¹ in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade⁻¹, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Journal of Climate 23 20 5349 5374 |