The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate
Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+1...
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Online Access: | http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-028 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 |
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_10530 2024-04-14T08:18:18+00:00 The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate Lawrence, D. (author) Slater, A. (author) 2010-06-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-028 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 en eng Climate Dynamics Daily Average Soil, Air and Ground Temperatures - Ivotuk Shrub Site--10.5065/D6GQ6VX7 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-028 doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 ark:/85065/d7862gzs An edited version of this paper was published by Springer. Copyright 2010 Springer. Text article 2010 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 2024-03-21T18:00:26Z Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+10-40%), altered maximum snow depth (-5 ± 6 cm), and a shortened snow-season (-14 ± 7 days in spring, +20 ± 9 days in autumn). By conducting a series of prescribed snow experiments with the Community Land Model, we isolate how trends in snowfall, snow depth, and snow-season length affect soil temperature trends. Increasing snowfall, by countering the snowpack-shallowing influence of warmer winters and shorter snow seasons, is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for 10-30% of total soil warming at 1 m depth and ~16% of the simulated twenty-first century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption whereas a shallowing snowpack mitigates soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. Snowpack deepening has comparatively less impact due to saturation of snow insulative capacity at deeper snow depths. Snow depth and snow-season length trends tend to be positively related, but their effects on soil temperature are opposing. Consequently, on the century timescale the net change in snow state can either amplify or mitigate soil warming. Snow state changes explain less than 25% of total soil temperature change by 2100. However, for the latter half of twentieth century, snow state variations account for as much as 50-100% of total soil temperature variations. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Climate Dynamics 34 7-8 969 981 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Global climate models predict that terrestrial northern high-latitude snow conditions will change substantially over the twenty-first century. Results from a Community Climate System Model simulation of twentieth and twenty-first (SRES A1B scenario) century climate show increased winter snowfall (+10-40%), altered maximum snow depth (-5 ± 6 cm), and a shortened snow-season (-14 ± 7 days in spring, +20 ± 9 days in autumn). By conducting a series of prescribed snow experiments with the Community Land Model, we isolate how trends in snowfall, snow depth, and snow-season length affect soil temperature trends. Increasing snowfall, by countering the snowpack-shallowing influence of warmer winters and shorter snow seasons, is effectively a soil warming agent, accounting for 10-30% of total soil warming at 1 m depth and ~16% of the simulated twenty-first century decline in near-surface permafrost extent. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption whereas a shallowing snowpack mitigates soil warming due to weaker winter insulation from cold atmospheric air. Snowpack deepening has comparatively less impact due to saturation of snow insulative capacity at deeper snow depths. Snow depth and snow-season length trends tend to be positively related, but their effects on soil temperature are opposing. Consequently, on the century timescale the net change in snow state can either amplify or mitigate soil warming. Snow state changes explain less than 25% of total soil temperature change by 2100. However, for the latter half of twentieth century, snow state variations account for as much as 50-100% of total soil temperature variations. |
author2 |
Lawrence, D. (author) Slater, A. (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
spellingShingle |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
title_short |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
title_full |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
title_fullStr |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
title_sort |
contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-028 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_relation |
Climate Dynamics Daily Average Soil, Air and Ground Temperatures - Ivotuk Shrub Site--10.5065/D6GQ6VX7 http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-002-028 doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 ark:/85065/d7862gzs |
op_rights |
An edited version of this paper was published by Springer. Copyright 2010 Springer. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
969 |
op_container_end_page |
981 |
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1796317758035591168 |