The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models
Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to...
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ftncar:oai:drupal-site.org:articles_10456 2023-09-05T13:11:28+02:00 The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models Holland, Marika (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) 2010-02-01 application/pdf http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-000-947 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 en eng Springer Climate Dynamics http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-000-947 doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 ark:/85065/d7n87b85 An edited version of this paper was published by Springer. Copyright 2010 Springer. Text article 2010 ftncar https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 2023-08-14T18:36:35Z Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. Article in Journal/Newspaper albedo Arctic Sea ice OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) Arctic Climate Dynamics 34 2-3 185 200 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
OpenSky (NCAR/UCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research) |
op_collection_id |
ftncar |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions. |
author2 |
Holland, Marika (author) Serreze, Mark (author) Stroeve, Julienne (author) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
title |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
spellingShingle |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
title_short |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
title_full |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
title_fullStr |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
title_sort |
sea ice mass budget of the arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-000-947 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
Climate Dynamics http://nldr.library.ucar.edu/repository/collections/OSGC-000-000-000-947 doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 ark:/85065/d7n87b85 |
op_rights |
An edited version of this paper was published by Springer. Copyright 2010 Springer. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0493-4 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
2-3 |
container_start_page |
185 |
op_container_end_page |
200 |
_version_ |
1776204849198661632 |