SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow plumes of moisture that transport a large flux of water vapor into the mid-latitudes. This source of precipitation is vital for the U.S. West Coast, especially California, where seasonal precipitation is highly dependent on these ARs and accounts for up to half it...
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ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/71540 2024-06-09T07:48:19+00:00 SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES Rueter, Niklas H. Nuss, Wendell A. Meteorology (MR) Boothe, Mark A. 2022-12 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/71540 unknown Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations 373, Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) 38471 https://hdl.handle.net/10945/71540 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. atmospheric rivers ARs streamfunction California U.S. West Coast geopotential height anomalies sub-seasonal forecasts Southern Europe Lisbon San Francisco Iberian Peninsula vertical integral of divergence of geopotential flux Thesis 2022 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:49:42Z Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow plumes of moisture that transport a large flux of water vapor into the mid-latitudes. This source of precipitation is vital for the U.S. West Coast, especially California, where seasonal precipitation is highly dependent on these ARs and accounts for up to half its annual precipitation. Due to the reliance on ARs for precipitation, effective water management has become crucial in the U.S. West as wildfires worsen and populations grow, increasing the demand on the entire region’s reservoirs. It is imperative that AR events are forecasted and communicated as early as possible. That is the goal of this thesis, to extend the prediction of ARs into the sub-seasonal timescale. Analysis of streamfunction anomalies (SFA) and the vertical integral of the divergence of geopotential flux (DGF) were done via an anomaly box off the west coast of British Columbia, with the process replicated for a climatologically similar region in the North Atlantic, showing good success to at least 40 days prior to an AR event for both San Francisco and Lisbon, Portugal. This lead time of conditions supporting ARs impacting these two regions is invaluable for forecasters and affiliated stakeholders. While this method will not forecast specific AR events, it can statistically indicate whether more ARs will be likely at the sub-seasonal time scale. The past 28 years of data (1994–2021) were analyzed for trends in SFA and DGF across both anomaly boxes. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Thesis North Atlantic Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
op_collection_id |
ftnavalpschool |
language |
unknown |
topic |
atmospheric rivers ARs streamfunction California U.S. West Coast geopotential height anomalies sub-seasonal forecasts Southern Europe Lisbon San Francisco Iberian Peninsula vertical integral of divergence of geopotential flux |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric rivers ARs streamfunction California U.S. West Coast geopotential height anomalies sub-seasonal forecasts Southern Europe Lisbon San Francisco Iberian Peninsula vertical integral of divergence of geopotential flux Rueter, Niklas H. SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
topic_facet |
atmospheric rivers ARs streamfunction California U.S. West Coast geopotential height anomalies sub-seasonal forecasts Southern Europe Lisbon San Francisco Iberian Peninsula vertical integral of divergence of geopotential flux |
description |
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow plumes of moisture that transport a large flux of water vapor into the mid-latitudes. This source of precipitation is vital for the U.S. West Coast, especially California, where seasonal precipitation is highly dependent on these ARs and accounts for up to half its annual precipitation. Due to the reliance on ARs for precipitation, effective water management has become crucial in the U.S. West as wildfires worsen and populations grow, increasing the demand on the entire region’s reservoirs. It is imperative that AR events are forecasted and communicated as early as possible. That is the goal of this thesis, to extend the prediction of ARs into the sub-seasonal timescale. Analysis of streamfunction anomalies (SFA) and the vertical integral of the divergence of geopotential flux (DGF) were done via an anomaly box off the west coast of British Columbia, with the process replicated for a climatologically similar region in the North Atlantic, showing good success to at least 40 days prior to an AR event for both San Francisco and Lisbon, Portugal. This lead time of conditions supporting ARs impacting these two regions is invaluable for forecasters and affiliated stakeholders. While this method will not forecast specific AR events, it can statistically indicate whether more ARs will be likely at the sub-seasonal time scale. The past 28 years of data (1994–2021) were analyzed for trends in SFA and DGF across both anomaly boxes. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Outstanding Thesis Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy |
author2 |
Nuss, Wendell A. Meteorology (MR) Boothe, Mark A. |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Rueter, Niklas H. |
author_facet |
Rueter, Niklas H. |
author_sort |
Rueter, Niklas H. |
title |
SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
title_short |
SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
title_full |
SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
title_fullStr |
SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
title_full_unstemmed |
SUB-SEASONAL FORECASTS OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IMPACTING CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE UTILIZING STREAMFUNCTION ANOMALIES |
title_sort |
sub-seasonal forecasts of atmospheric rivers impacting california and southern europe utilizing streamfunction anomalies |
publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/71540 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations 373, Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC) 38471 https://hdl.handle.net/10945/71540 |
op_rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
_version_ |
1801379987862847488 |