EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES
A decline of the Arctic sea ice in response to a warming climate is assessed in the historical sea ice simulations from state-of-the-art global climate models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Accurate simulations of sea ice are important for projections...
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Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
2021
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ftnavalpschool:oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/68397 2024-06-09T07:43:07+00:00 EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES Watts, Matthew N. Maslowski, Wieslaw Murphree, Tom Stanton, Timothy P. Lee, Younjoo Orescanin, Mara S. Oceanography (OC) 2021-09 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/10945/68397 unknown Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School 443, Oceanography (PhD) 32625 https://hdl.handle.net/10945/68397 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. Arctic Ocean Arctic sea ice Arctic amplification Earth system models global climate models oceanic forcing ocean heat convergence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6 model biases sea ice thickness SIT oceanic heat transport OHT sea ice area SIA sea ice extent SIE sea ice volume SIV Thesis 2021 ftnavalpschool 2024-05-15T00:43:36Z A decline of the Arctic sea ice in response to a warming climate is assessed in the historical sea ice simulations from state-of-the-art global climate models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Accurate simulations of sea ice are important for projections of its regional and global effects on the air-sea exchanges, weather, and climate. The timing and rate of simulated sea ice decline is compared with available observations for sea ice area and volume. Analysis indicates multi-model means and long-term trends for these common sea ice metrics are well represented, but the individual CMIP6 model ability to represent the observed accelerated rate in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Local and regional sea ice biases are identified through spatial analysis metrics, like sea ice thickness distribution pattern and sea ice edge analysis. Large model spatial errors imply limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. The oceanic heat transport (OHT) and its forcing of the pan-Arctic sea ice decline are examined as possible model limitations. CMIP6 models show a strong correlation between increasing OHT and decreasing sea ice trends but likely underestimate the northward OHT over the polar cap (70°–90°N). Isolating specific model limitations and identifying possible processes affecting them will guide future model improvements critical to our understanding and projection of Arctic climate change. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Commander, United States Navy Thesis Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun Arctic Arctic Ocean |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Naval Postgraduate School: Calhoun |
op_collection_id |
ftnavalpschool |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Arctic Ocean Arctic sea ice Arctic amplification Earth system models global climate models oceanic forcing ocean heat convergence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6 model biases sea ice thickness SIT oceanic heat transport OHT sea ice area SIA sea ice extent SIE sea ice volume SIV |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Ocean Arctic sea ice Arctic amplification Earth system models global climate models oceanic forcing ocean heat convergence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6 model biases sea ice thickness SIT oceanic heat transport OHT sea ice area SIA sea ice extent SIE sea ice volume SIV Watts, Matthew N. EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
topic_facet |
Arctic Ocean Arctic sea ice Arctic amplification Earth system models global climate models oceanic forcing ocean heat convergence Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6 model biases sea ice thickness SIT oceanic heat transport OHT sea ice area SIA sea ice extent SIE sea ice volume SIV |
description |
A decline of the Arctic sea ice in response to a warming climate is assessed in the historical sea ice simulations from state-of-the-art global climate models participating in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Accurate simulations of sea ice are important for projections of its regional and global effects on the air-sea exchanges, weather, and climate. The timing and rate of simulated sea ice decline is compared with available observations for sea ice area and volume. Analysis indicates multi-model means and long-term trends for these common sea ice metrics are well represented, but the individual CMIP6 model ability to represent the observed accelerated rate in sea ice decline remains a challenge. Local and regional sea ice biases are identified through spatial analysis metrics, like sea ice thickness distribution pattern and sea ice edge analysis. Large model spatial errors imply limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. The oceanic heat transport (OHT) and its forcing of the pan-Arctic sea ice decline are examined as possible model limitations. CMIP6 models show a strong correlation between increasing OHT and decreasing sea ice trends but likely underestimate the northward OHT over the polar cap (70°–90°N). Isolating specific model limitations and identifying possible processes affecting them will guide future model improvements critical to our understanding and projection of Arctic climate change. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. Commander, United States Navy |
author2 |
Maslowski, Wieslaw Murphree, Tom Stanton, Timothy P. Lee, Younjoo Orescanin, Mara S. Oceanography (OC) |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Watts, Matthew N. |
author_facet |
Watts, Matthew N. |
author_sort |
Watts, Matthew N. |
title |
EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
title_short |
EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
title_full |
EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
title_fullStr |
EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
title_full_unstemmed |
EVALUATION OF THE COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE 6 (CMIP6) HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE: PROGRESS, LIMITATIONS AND THEIR CAUSES |
title_sort |
evaluation of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (cmip6) historical simulations of the arctic sea ice: progress, limitations and their causes |
publisher |
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/68397 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
443, Oceanography (PhD) 32625 https://hdl.handle.net/10945/68397 |
op_rights |
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States. |
_version_ |
1801371865616220160 |